What does Bayern München need to go through in the Champions League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 3, Bayern München are 14th with 5 points. Next match: 3 November, away against Atlético de Madrid. In our simulations Bayern München go through almost every time, so the real question is the top 8, which they reach in 64% of cases. 15 points usually secure a top-8 place, and 16 make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Atlético de Madrid (matchday 4) and Manchester United (matchday 7): each result moves their top-8 chances by about 45 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 5th, average 7.8.
Bayern München matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Thursday 10 September, 21:00Win 81%, draw 13%, defeat 6%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00Win 83%, draw 12%, defeat 5%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00Win 46%, draw 26%, defeat 28%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00Win 45%, draw 26%, defeat 29%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
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Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00Win 67%, draw 20%, defeat 13%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw99%If they lose98%
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Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00Win 87%, draw 9%, defeat 4%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose97%
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Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00Win 57%, draw 23%, defeat 20%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
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Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00Win 73%, draw 17%, defeat 10%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw99%If they lose98%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Bayern München collect in the league phase.
Where could Bayern München finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Champions League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Paris Saint-Germain9100%
- 2Aston Villa9100%
- 3Liverpool9100%
- 4Real Madrid9100%
- 5Real Betis999%
- 6Stuttgart797%
- 7Arsenal7100%
- 8Barcelona6>99%
- 9Como691%
- 10Manchester City699%
- 11Club Brugge687%
- 12Sporting CP690%
- 13Borussia Dortmund695%
- 14Bayern München5>99%
- 15Roma477%
- 16Atlético de Madrid496%
- 17Shakhtar Donetsk462%
- 18PSV Eindhoven477%
- 19Villarreal382%
- 20Inter389%
- 21Manchester United360%
- 22Napoli389%
- 23Galatasaray355%
- 24LASK331%
- 25Sabah34%
- 26Feyenoord357%
- 27Lens338%
- 28Bodø/Glimt359%
- 29AEK Athens319%
- 30Leipzig364%
- 31Fenerbahçe230%
- 32Slavia Praha14%
- 33Viking19%
- 34Porto027%
- 35Lille014%
- 36Slovan Bratislava03%
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Bayern München's chances of going through in the Champions League?
Across 30,000 simulations Bayern München go through (24th place or better) in >99% of cases and reach the top 8 in 64%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Bayern München need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.
When is Bayern München's next match?
3 November, away against Atlético de Madrid on matchday 4 of the Champions League.
Which match matters most for Bayern München?
The matchday 6 game at home against Slavia Praha. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 3 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Champions League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.