What does Ararat-Armenia need to go through in the Europa League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 2, Ararat-Armenia are 34th with 0 points. Next match: 22 October, at home against AZ Alkmaar. In our simulations Ararat-Armenia go through (24th place or better) in 6% of cases and make the top 8 in <1%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against N.E.C. Nijmegen (matchday 6) and Torreense (matchday 4): each result moves the chances by about 14 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 36th, average 32.6.
Ararat-Armenia matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00Win 18%, draw 23%, defeat 59%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00Win 17%, draw 22%, defeat 61%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45Win 16%, draw 21%, defeat 63%Chance of going through:If they win19%If they draw6%If they lose3%
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Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 56%Chance of going through:If they win17%If they draw5%If they lose2%
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Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45Win 10%, draw 17%, defeat 73%Chance of going through:If they win22%If they draw7%If they lose4%
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Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45Win 23%, draw 25%, defeat 52%Chance of going through:If they win16%If they draw4%If they lose2%
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Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45Win 34%, draw 26%, defeat 40%Chance of going through:If they win13%If they draw4%If they lose2%
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Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00Win 3%, draw 8%, defeat 88%Chance of going through:If they win28%If they draw10%If they lose5%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Ararat-Armenia collect in the league phase.
Where could Ararat-Armenia finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Europa League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Juventus6100%
- 2Leverkusen6>99%
- 3Benfica6100%
- 4Beşiktaş698%
- 5Bournemouth6>99%
- 6Omonia682%
- 7Ferencváros697%
- 8Lyon699%
- 9Sunderland699%
- 10Olympiacos699%
- 11Sparta Praha480%
- 12Union SG496%
- 13Rennes491%
- 14GNK Dinamo476%
- 15Crystal Palace393%
- 16Milan399%
- 17Jagiellonia359%
- 18OFI Crete352%
- 19Torreense356%
- 20AZ Alkmaar386%
- 21Salzburg384%
- 22Real Sociedad172%
- 23Lillestrøm118%
- 24Hapoel Beer-Sheva120%
- 25Levski Sofia124%
- 26Sturm Graz146%
- 27N.E.C. Nijmegen153%
- 28Anderlecht038%
- 29Celta054%
- 30Hoffenheim047%
- 31Viktoria Plzeň033%
- 32Marseille068%
- 33Celtic038%
- 34Ararat-Armenia06%
- 35Celje019%
- 36Lech Poznań019%
How the league phase works
The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Ararat-Armenia's chances of going through in the Europa League?
Across 30,000 simulations Ararat-Armenia go through (24th place or better) in 6% of cases and reach the top 8 in <1%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Ararat-Armenia need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.
When is Ararat-Armenia's next match?
22 October, at home against AZ Alkmaar on matchday 3 of the Europa League.
Which match matters most for Ararat-Armenia?
The matchday 8 game away against Milan. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 23 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Europa League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.