Knockout Math
Latviski

What does Ararat-Armenia need to go through in the Europa League?

← Back to the Europa League table

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Ararat-Armenia are 33rd with 0 points. Next match: 15 October, away against Jagiellonia. In our simulations Ararat-Armenia go through (24th place or better) in 10% of cases and make the top 8 in <1%. 10 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 11 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Celje (matchday 7) and N.E.C. Nijmegen (matchday 6): each result moves the chances by about 17 percentage points.

33rdleague position
0point from 1 match
10%chance of going through (top 24)
<1%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 36th, average 31.6.

Ararat-Armenia matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 16 September, 21:00
    HomeSparta Praha1–4
    Win 21%, draw 24%, defeat 55%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00
    AwayJagiellonia –
    Win 19%, draw 23%, defeat 58%
    Chance of going through:If they win27%If they draw10%If they lose5%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45
    HomeAZ Alkmaar –
    Win 17%, draw 22%, defeat 61%
    Chance of going through:If they win27%If they draw11%If they lose6%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00
    AwayTorreense –
    Win 23%, draw 24%, defeat 53%
    Chance of going through:If they win24%If they draw9%If they lose5%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 18:45
    AwaySalzburg –
    Win 11%, draw 17%, defeat 72%
    Chance of going through:If they win30%If they draw13%If they lose7%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 18:45
    HomeN.E.C. Nijmegen –
    Win 25%, draw 25%, defeat 51%
    Chance of going through:If they win24%If they draw9%If they lose5%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45
    HomeCelje –
    Win 33%, draw 26%, defeat 41%
    Chance of going through:If they win21%If they draw8%If they lose4%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    AwayMilan –
    Win 4%, draw 9%, defeat 87%
    Chance of going through:If they win33%If they draw16%If they lose9%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Ararat-Armenia collect in the league phase.

00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
83%
931%
1088%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16unlikely
17unlikely
18unlikely
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Ararat-Armenia finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille082%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams