Knockout Math
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What does Paris Saint-Germain need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Paris Saint-Germain are 1st with 3 points. Next match: 14 October, away against Manchester City. In our simulations Paris Saint-Germain go through (24th place or better) in 99% of cases and make the top 8 in 74%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain.

1stleague position
3point from 1 match
99%chance of going through (top 24)
74%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 1st, average 6.3.

Paris Saint-Germain matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Wednesday 9 September, 21:00
    HomeSlovan Bratislava6–1
    Win 93%, draw 6%, defeat 2%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00
    AwayManchester City –
    Win 39%, draw 26%, defeat 34%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw>99%If they lose99%
  3. Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
    HomeBarcelona –
    Win 50%, draw 25%, defeat 25%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose99%
  4. Matchday 4Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
    AwayVillarreal –
    Win 59%, draw 23%, defeat 18%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
    HomeRoma –
    Win 73%, draw 17%, defeat 10%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00
    AwayAston Villa –
    Win 52%, draw 25%, defeat 23%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose99%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
    AwayComo –
    Win 63%, draw 21%, defeat 16%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose98%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomeGalatasaray –
    Win 77%, draw 15%, defeat 8%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose97%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Paris Saint-Germain collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
4unlikely
5unlikely
6unlikely
7unlikely
834%
983%
10100%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24100%
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Paris Saint-Germain finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams