Hoffenheim vs Lyon: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00
Hoffenheim29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Lyon10th, 3 pts
41%Hoffenheim win
26%Draw
33%Lyon win
The model gives Hoffenheim a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lyon 33%. Hoffenheim's chance of going through is 71% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 56%. Lyon's chance of going through is 94% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 90%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Hoffenheim: top 8 | Hoffenheim: through | Lyon: top 8 | Lyon: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 14% | 71% | 44% | 94% |
| Hoffenheim win | 24% | 86% | 30% | 90% |
| Draw | 9% | 68% | 43% | 95% |
| Lyon win | 5% | 56% | 63% | 99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar
- Ferencváros – Torreense
- GNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Juventus – Rennes
- Lech Poznań – Sunderland
- OFI Crete – Leverkusen
- Union SG – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Sturm Graz – Marseille
- Bournemouth – Milan
- Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace
- Celtic – Celta
- Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia
- Jagiellonia – Anderlecht
- Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad
- Celje – Salzburg
- Olympiacos – Sparta Praha
- Omonia – Benfica