Knockout Math
Live
EN

Hoffenheim vs Lyon: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Hoffenheim30th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Lyon8th, 6 pts
35%Hoffenheim win
26%Draw
38%Lyon win

The model gives Hoffenheim a 35% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lyon 38%. Hoffenheim's chance of going through is 47% now: a win would take it to 69%, a defeat to 31%. Lyon's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeHoffenheim: top 8Hoffenheim: throughLyon: top 8Lyon: through
Now2%47%59%99%
Hoffenheim win4%69%41%98%
Draw1%43%55%99%
Lyon win<1%31%78%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
27%Hoffenheim clean sheet
28%Lyon clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Hoffenheim

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LOFI Crete A0–2
  2. MD2LBeşiktaş H2–3
  3. MD3Lyon H this match22 October
  4. MD4Crystal Palace A5 November
  5. MD5Sturm Graz H26 November
  6. MD6Anderlecht A10 December
  7. MD7Olympiacos A21 January
  8. MD8Ferencváros H28 January

Lyon

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WAnderlecht A2–1
  2. MD2WCrystal Palace H3–2
  3. MD3Hoffenheim A this match22 October
  4. MD4Real Sociedad A5 November
  5. MD5Lillestrøm H26 November
  6. MD6Union SG H10 December
  7. MD7Jagiellonia A21 January
  8. MD8Leverkusen H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Hoffenheim vs Lyon?

The model gives Hoffenheim a 35% chance of winning and Lyon 38%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Hoffenheim vs Lyon?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Hoffenheim and 1.3 for Lyon, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Hoffenheim?

Hoffenheim's qualification chance is 47% right now. A win would make it 69%, a draw 43% and a defeat 31%.

What does this match mean for Lyon?

Lyon's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 99% and a defeat 98%.

When is Hoffenheim vs Lyon played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →