Knockout Math
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What does OFI Crete need to go through in the Europa League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, OFI Crete are 9th with 3 points. Next match: 15 October, away against Rennes. In our simulations OFI Crete go through (24th place or better) in 49% of cases and make the top 8 in 4%. 10 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations). The biggest matches are against Lech Poznań (matchday 8) and Anderlecht (matchday 5): each result moves the chances by about 40 percentage points.

9thleague position
3point from 1 match
49%chance of going through (top 24)
4%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 31st, average 23.8.

OFI Crete matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Thursday 17 September, 21:00
    HomeHoffenheim2–0
    Win 22%, draw 24%, defeat 53%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Thursday 15 October, 21:00
    AwayRennes –
    Win 14%, draw 20%, defeat 65%
    Chance of going through:If they win78%If they draw56%If they lose41%
  3. Matchday 3Thursday 22 October, 18:45
    HomeLeverkusen –
    Win 13%, draw 19%, defeat 67%
    Chance of going through:If they win78%If they draw55%If they lose42%
  4. Matchday 4Thursday 5 November, 21:00
    AwayHapoel Beer-Sheva –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:If they win75%If they draw49%If they lose34%
  5. Matchday 5Thursday 26 November, 21:00
    HomeAnderlecht –
    Win 32%, draw 26%, defeat 42%
    Chance of going through:If they win72%If they draw46%If they lose33%
  6. Matchday 6Thursday 10 December, 21:00
    AwayBenfica –
    Win 8%, draw 15%, defeat 77%
    Chance of going through:If they win79%If they draw58%If they lose44%
  7. Matchday 7Thursday 21 January, 18:45
    AwaySturm Graz –
    Win 22%, draw 24%, defeat 54%
    Chance of going through:If they win77%If they draw52%If they lose37%
  8. Matchday 8Thursday 28 January, 21:00
    HomeLech Poznań –
    Win 37%, draw 26%, defeat 36%
    Chance of going through:If they win70%If they draw44%If they lose31%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points OFI Crete collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
30%
40%
50%
60%
7<1%
86%
945%
1091%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could OFI Crete finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Europa League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Juventus399%
  2. 2Crystal Palace394%
  3. 3Sparta Praha383%
  4. 4Beşiktaş385%
  5. 5Union SG392%
  6. 6Ferencváros383%
  7. 7Benfica399%
  8. 8Leverkusen399%
  9. 9OFI Crete349%
  10. 10Lyon394%
  11. 11Torreense360%
  12. 12Bournemouth397%
  13. 13Olympiacos391%
  14. 14Salzburg388%
  15. 15Omonia346%
  16. 16Sunderland393%
  17. 17Rennes183%
  18. 18Hapoel Beer-Sheva127%
  19. 19GNK Dinamo154%
  20. 20Sturm Graz152%
  21. 21Jagiellonia041%
  22. 22Real Sociedad071%
  23. 23Anderlecht050%
  24. 24Lillestrøm015%
  25. 25AZ Alkmaar075%
  26. 26Celta064%
  27. 27Levski Sofia021%
  28. 28Celtic052%
  29. 29Hoffenheim071%
  30. 30Milan095%
  31. 31Celje040%
  32. 32Marseille082%
  33. 33Ararat-Armenia010%
  34. 34Viktoria Plzeň049%
  35. 35Lech Poznań033%
  36. 36N.E.C. Nijmegen063%

How the league phase works

The Europa League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Europa League teams