Knockout Math
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What does Manchester City need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Manchester City are 8th with 3 points. Next match: 14 October, at home against Paris Saint-Germain. In our simulations Manchester City go through (24th place or better) in 98% of cases and make the top 8 in 54%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Lens (matchday 7) and Sporting CP (matchday 8): each result moves the chances by about 5 percentage points.

8thleague position
3point from 1 match
98%chance of going through (top 24)
54%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 6th, average 9.1.

Manchester City matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Tuesday 8 September, 21:00
    AwayPorto2–0
    Win 49%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00
    HomeParis Saint-Germain –
    Win 34%, draw 26%, defeat 39%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw98%If they lose97%
  3. Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00
    HomeAEK Athens –
    Win 80%, draw 13%, defeat 7%
    Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw95%If they lose92%
  4. Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
    AwayLeipzig –
    Win 49%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw98%If they lose96%
  5. Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00
    HomeNapoli –
    Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw97%If they lose95%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00
    AwayBarcelona –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw99%If they lose97%
  7. Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00
    AwayLens –
    Win 55%, draw 24%, defeat 21%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw98%If they lose95%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomeSporting CP –
    Win 63%, draw 21%, defeat 16%
    Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw97%If they lose94%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Manchester City collect in the league phase.

0unlikely
1unlikely
2unlikely
3unlikely
4unlikely
5unlikely
60%
72%
825%
976%
1099%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18100%
19100%
20100%
21100%
22100%
23unlikely
24100%
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Manchester City finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams