What does Manchester City need to go through in the Champions League?
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Updated 21 October 2026, 2026/27 league phase
After matchday 3, Manchester City are 10th with 6 points. Next match: 4 November, away against Leipzig. In our simulations Manchester City go through (24th place or better) in 99% of cases and make the top 8 in 45%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Sporting CP (matchday 8) and Lens (matchday 7): each result moves the chances by about 5 percentage points.
30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 7th, average 10.1.
Manchester City matches
Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.
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Matchday 1Tuesday 8 September, 21:00Win 53%, draw 24%, defeat 23%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 2Wednesday 14 October, 21:00Win 31%, draw 26%, defeat 43%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 3Tuesday 20 October, 21:00Win 81%, draw 13%, defeat 6%Chance of going through:Played
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Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00Win 51%, draw 25%, defeat 24%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw98%If they lose96%
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Matchday 5Tuesday 24 November, 21:00Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw98%If they lose96%
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Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 49%Chance of going through:If they win100%If they draw99%If they lose98%
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Matchday 7Wednesday 20 January, 21:00Win 58%, draw 23%, defeat 19%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw98%If they lose96%
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Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00Win 61%, draw 22%, defeat 17%Chance of going through:If they win>99%If they draw98%If they lose95%
How many points are needed?
Chance of going through depending on how many points Manchester City collect in the league phase.
Where could Manchester City finish?
Final position chances across the simulations.
White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.
Champions League table
The current table. Click a team to open its page. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.
- 1Paris Saint-Germain9100%
- 2Aston Villa9100%
- 3Liverpool9100%
- 4Real Madrid9100%
- 5Real Betis999%
- 6Stuttgart797%
- 7Arsenal7100%
- 8Barcelona6>99%
- 9Como691%
- 10Manchester City699%
- 11Club Brugge687%
- 12Sporting CP690%
- 13Borussia Dortmund695%
- 14Bayern München5>99%
- 15Roma477%
- 16Atlético de Madrid496%
- 17Shakhtar Donetsk462%
- 18PSV Eindhoven477%
- 19Villarreal382%
- 20Inter389%
- 21Manchester United360%
- 22Napoli389%
- 23Galatasaray355%
- 24LASK331%
- 25Sabah34%
- 26Feyenoord357%
- 27Lens338%
- 28Bodø/Glimt359%
- 29AEK Athens319%
- 30Leipzig364%
- 31Fenerbahçe230%
- 32Slavia Praha14%
- 33Viking19%
- 34Porto027%
- 35Lille014%
- 36Slovan Bratislava03%
How the league phase works
The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.
If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.
Frequently asked questions
What are Manchester City's chances of going through in the Champions League?
Across 30,000 simulations Manchester City go through (24th place or better) in 99% of cases and reach the top 8 in 45%. The numbers are recalculated after every matchday.
How many points do Manchester City need to qualify?
9 points are usually enough: a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations. 10 points make it almost certain.
When is Manchester City's next match?
4 November, away against Leipzig on matchday 4 of the Champions League.
Which match matters most for Manchester City?
The matchday 8 game at home against Sporting CP. Winning or losing it moves their chances of going through by about 5 percentage points.
What happens to teams finishing 9th to 24th in the Champions League?
They play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16. The top eight go straight through, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.