Frequently asked questions
Short answers about the European league-phase format, the points thresholds, the knockout rounds and how the qualification chances are calculated.
How many points are needed to qualify from a European league phase?
In the simulations, 24th place or better usually needs 9 points in the Champions League, 9 in the Europa League and 7 in the Conference League. A top-8 finish needs more: 16, 15 and 12 points respectively.
How does the 36-team league phase work?
All teams sit in one combined table but face different opponents: 8 matches each in the Champions League and Europa League, 6 in the Conference League, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight to the round of 16, 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off, and 25th to 36th are eliminated.
What happens if teams are level on points?
The order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents. Disciplinary points and the club coefficient come only after that.
When are the knockout rounds and the finals?
Champions League: play-offs on 16/17 and 23/24 February 2027, round of 16 on 9/10 and 16/17 March 2027, final on 5 June 2027 in Madrid (Estadio Metropolitano). Europa League: play-offs on 18 and 25 February 2027, final on 26 May 2027 in Frankfurt. Conference League: play-offs on 18 and 25 February 2027, final on 2 June 2027 in Istanbul (Beşiktaş Stadium).
What is the difference between the Champions League, Europa League and Conference League?
The format is the same, but the level and the number of matches differ. The Champions League is the strongest, the Europa League second and the Conference League third, where each team plays 6 matches instead of 8. That is why the Conference League threshold is a few points lower.
How are the qualification chances calculated?
Every team has a strength rating that is updated after each played match. For the remaining fixtures the model estimates expected goals and draws scores from a Poisson distribution, playing out the rest of the league phase 30,000 times. A team's top-8 chance is simply the share of runs in which it finished there.
How often are the numbers updated?
After every matchday, once results are entered. Ratings, tables, chances and the written summaries on every page are then recalculated. The update date is shown on each page.
Can I see what a specific match means?
Yes. Every fixture has its own page showing how a win, a draw or a defeat changes both teams' chances of a top-8 finish and of going through. On the home page you can also enter your own predictions and watch the whole table change.
Is this site affiliated with UEFA?
No. It is an independent, unofficial tool. Fixtures follow data published by UEFA, but the calculations are our own and they are estimates, not guarantees.