Knockout Math
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What does Club Brugge need to go through in the Champions League?

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Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

After matchday 1, Club Brugge are 23rd with 0 points. Next match: 13 October, away against Inter. In our simulations Club Brugge go through (24th place or better) in 36% of cases and make the top 8 in 1%. 9 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 10 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against Lens (matchday 3) and Bodø/Glimt (matchday 8): each result moves the chances by about 34 percentage points.

23rdleague position
0point from 1 match
36%chance of going through (top 24)
1%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 32nd, average 26.1.

Club Brugge matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

  1. Matchday 1Tuesday 8 September, 18:45
    HomeAston Villa2–3
    Win 32%, draw 26%, defeat 42%
    Chance of going through:Played
  2. Matchday 2Tuesday 13 October, 21:00
    AwayInter –
    Win 14%, draw 20%, defeat 67%
    Chance of going through:If they win64%If they draw41%If they lose29%
  3. Matchday 3Wednesday 21 October, 21:00
    HomeLens –
    Win 44%, draw 26%, defeat 30%
    Chance of going through:If they win52%If they draw29%If they lose18%
  4. Matchday 4Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
    AwayPSV Eindhoven –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:If they win60%If they draw35%If they lose23%
  5. Matchday 5Wednesday 25 November, 21:00
    HomeLiverpool –
    Win 19%, draw 23%, defeat 58%
    Chance of going through:If they win62%If they draw38%If they lose27%
  6. Matchday 6Tuesday 8 December, 21:00
    AwayNapoli –
    Win 19%, draw 23%, defeat 58%
    Chance of going through:If they win62%If they draw38%If they lose27%
  7. Matchday 7Tuesday 19 January, 21:00
    AwayStuttgart –
    Win 26%, draw 25%, defeat 48%
    Chance of going through:If they win59%If they draw36%If they lose23%
  8. Matchday 8Wednesday 27 January, 21:00
    HomeBodø/Glimt –
    Win 48%, draw 25%, defeat 26%
    Chance of going through:If they win51%If they draw27%If they lose17%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Club Brugge collect in the league phase.

00%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
71%
818%
967%
1097%
11100%
12100%
13100%
14100%
15100%
16100%
17100%
18unlikely
19unlikely
20unlikely
21unlikely
22unlikely
23unlikely
24unlikely
almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Club Brugge finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Champions League table

The current table. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

  1. 1Paris Saint-Germain399%
  2. 2Bayern München3>99%
  3. 3Barcelona399%
  4. 4Manchester United386%
  5. 5Como378%
  6. 6Sporting CP389%
  7. 7Stuttgart388%
  8. 8Manchester City398%
  9. 9Real Betis382%
  10. 10Lens376%
  11. 11Aston Villa395%
  12. 12Borussia Dortmund395%
  13. 13Real Madrid3>99%
  14. 14Liverpool3>99%
  15. 15Arsenal3>99%
  16. 16AEK Athens342%
  17. 17Roma173%
  18. 18Shakhtar Donetsk144%
  19. 19Fenerbahçe159%
  20. 20PSV Eindhoven166%
  21. 21Villarreal063%
  22. 22Slavia Praha021%
  23. 23Club Brugge036%
  24. 24Lille047%
  25. 25Atlético de Madrid089%
  26. 26Inter095%
  27. 27LASK011%
  28. 28Napoli090%
  29. 29Galatasaray044%
  30. 30Viking010%
  31. 31Porto066%
  32. 32Leipzig057%
  33. 33Feyenoord047%
  34. 34Sabah02%
  35. 35Slovan Bratislava011%
  36. 36Bodø/Glimt041%

How the league phase works

The Champions League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 8 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.

Other Champions League teams