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Monaco vs Freiburg: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Monaco9th, 3 pts
–Matchday 2
Freiburg7th, 3 pts
44%Monaco win
26%Draw
30%Freiburg win

The model gives Monaco a 44% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Freiburg 30%. Monaco's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. Freiburg's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 95%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeMonaco: top 8Monaco: throughFreiburg: top 8Freiburg: through
Now65%99%56%97%
Monaco win85%>99%40%95%
Draw58%99%55%98%
Freiburg win42%97%80%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
32%Monaco clean sheet
23%Freiburg clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Monaco

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WCSKA Sofia A2–1
  2. MD2Freiburg H this match22 October
  3. MD3Nordsjælland H5 November
  4. MD4Hearts A26 November
  5. MD5Brighton A10 December
  6. MD6Lincoln Red Imps H17 December

Freiburg

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WJablonec H3–2
  2. MD2Monaco A this match22 October
  3. MD3Trabzonspor A5 November
  4. MD4Twente H26 November
  5. MD5Panathinaikos H10 December
  6. MD6Kauno Žalgiris A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Monaco vs Freiburg?

The model gives Monaco a 44% chance of winning and Freiburg 30%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Monaco vs Freiburg?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Monaco and 1.1 for Freiburg, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Monaco?

Monaco's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 97%.

What does this match mean for Freiburg?

Freiburg's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 95%.

When is Monaco vs Freiburg played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →