What does Monaco need to go through in the Conference League?

Updated 25 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

Monaco will play 6 league-phase matches, 3 at home and 3 away. First match: 15 October, away against CSKA Sofia. In our simulations Monaco go through (24th place or better) in 95% of cases and make the top 8 in 52%. 7 points are usually enough (a team on that total goes through in more than half of the simulations), and 8 points make it almost certain. The biggest matches are against CSKA Sofia (matchday 1) and Nordsjælland (matchday 3): each result moves the chances by about 12 percentage points.

–league position (not started yet)

0points from 0 matches

95%chance of going through (top 24)

52%chance of making the top 8

30,000 simulations. Most likely finish: 2nd, average 9.9.

Monaco matches

Times in your time zone. Under each match you can see how its result changes the chance of going through. Enter your own prediction and every number on the page updates.

Matchday 1Thursday 15 October, 18:45

AwayCSKA Sofia –

Win 56%, draw 23%, defeat 20%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw93%If they lose86%
Matchday 2Thursday 22 October, 21:00

HomeFreiburg –

Win 44%, draw 26%, defeat 30%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw95%If they lose89%
Matchday 3Thursday 5 November, 21:00

HomeNordsjælland –

Win 64%, draw 21%, defeat 15%

Chance of going through:If they win98%If they draw92%If they lose85%
Matchday 4Thursday 26 November, 18:45

AwayHearts –

Win 52%, draw 25%, defeat 23%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw94%If they lose87%
Matchday 5Thursday 10 December, 21:00

AwayBrighton –

Win 28%, draw 26%, defeat 47%

Chance of going through:If they win99%If they draw96%If they lose92%
Matchday 6Thursday 17 December, 21:00

HomeLincoln Red Imps –

Win 89%, draw 8%, defeat 3%

Chance of going through:If they win96%If they draw86%If they lose78%

How many points are needed?

Chance of going through depending on how many points Monaco collect in the league phase.

0unlikely

1unlikely

2unlikely

30%

40%

52%

629%

790%

8>99%

9100%

10100%

11100%

12100%

13100%

14100%

15100%

16100%

17unlikely

18100%

almost certainlikelypossible

Where could Monaco finish?

Final position chances across the simulations.

1st8th24th36th

White: top 8, yellow: 9th–24th, grey: eliminated.

Projected Conference League table

The league phase has not started yet, so teams are ordered by their average projected position. On the right: chance of going through. The solid line after 8th means a direct place in the round of 16, the dashed line after 24th is the elimination line.

How the league phase works

The Conference League league phase has 36 teams in a single table. Each team plays 6 matches against different opponents, half at home and half away. The top eight go straight into the round of 16. Teams finishing 9th to 24th play a two-legged knockout play-off in February for a place in the round of 16, while 25th to 36th are eliminated.

If teams finish level on points, the order is decided by goal difference, then goals scored, away goals scored, wins, away wins and finally the combined record of their opponents.