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Bodø/Glimt vs Lille: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 21:00

Bodø/Glimt28th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Lille35th, 0 pts
43%Bodø/Glimt win
26%Draw
31%Lille win

The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Lille 31%. Bodø/Glimt's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 36%. Lille's chance of going through is 14% now: a win would take it to 31%, a defeat to 5%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBodø/Glimt: top 8Bodø/Glimt: throughLille: top 8Lille: through
Now2%59%<1%14%
Bodø/Glimt win4%79%0%5%
Draw1%51%0%10%
Lille win<1%36%<1%31%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.4 – 1.2Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
31%Bodø/Glimt clean sheet
24%Lille clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Bodø/Glimt

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LBayern München A0–5
  2. MD2WBorussia Dortmund H1–0
  3. MD3LNapoli A3–4
  4. MD4Lille H this match3 November
  5. MD5LASK H24 November
  6. MD6Lens A9 December
  7. MD7Atlético de Madrid H19 January
  8. MD8Club Brugge A27 January

Lille

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -6

  1. MD1LReal Betis H2–3
  2. MD2LArsenal A0–3
  3. MD3LGalatasaray H2–4
  4. MD4Bodø/Glimt A this match3 November
  5. MD5Bayern München H25 November
  6. MD6Stuttgart A9 December
  7. MD7Slovan Bratislava H19 January
  8. MD8Roma A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Bodø/Glimt vs Lille?

The model gives Bodø/Glimt a 43% chance of winning and Lille 31%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Bodø/Glimt vs Lille?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.4 for Bodø/Glimt and 1.2 for Lille, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Bodø/Glimt?

Bodø/Glimt's qualification chance is 59% right now. A win would make it 79%, a draw 51% and a defeat 36%.

What does this match mean for Lille?

Lille's qualification chance is 14% right now. A win would make it 31%, a draw 10% and a defeat 5%.

When is Bodø/Glimt vs Lille played?

Tuesday 3 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →