Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis: what's at stake in the Champions League?

Q: What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

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Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 21:00

Borussia Dortmund13th, 6 pts

–Matchday 4

Real Betis5th, 9 pts

51%Borussia Dortmund win

25%Draw

25%Real Betis win

The model gives Borussia Dortmund a 51% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Real Betis 25%. Borussia Dortmund's chance of going through is 95% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 86%. Real Betis's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 99%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Outcome	Borussia Dortmund: top 8	Borussia Dortmund: through	Real Betis: top 8	Real Betis: through
Now	18%	95%	36%	99%
Borussia Dortmund win	28%	99%	21%	99%
Draw	10%	94%	37%	>99%
Real Betis win	4%	86%	66%	100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.0Expected goals

52%Both teams score

49%3 or more goals

35%Borussia Dortmund clean sheet

20%Real Betis clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%

1–011%

2–110%

2–09%

0–17%

0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Borussia Dortmund

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

MD1WVillarreal H3–2
MD2LBodø/Glimt A0–1
MD3WSabah A2–1
MD4Real Betis H this match4 November
MD5Arsenal A24 November
MD6Inter H9 December
MD7Aston Villa A19 January
MD8AEK Athens H27 January

Real Betis

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

MD1WLille A3–2
MD2WPorto H3–2
MD3WFeyenoord H1–0
MD4Borussia Dortmund A this match4 November
MD5Slovan Bratislava A24 November
MD6Como H9 December
MD7Arsenal H20 January
MD8Bayern München A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Dortmund vs Real Betis?

The model gives Borussia Dortmund a 51% chance of winning and Real Betis 25%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Dortmund vs Real Betis?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.0 for Real Betis, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Borussia Dortmund?

Borussia Dortmund's qualification chance is 95% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 94% and a defeat 86%.

What does this match mean for Real Betis?

Real Betis's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw >99% and a defeat 99%.

When is Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis played?

Wednesday 4 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →