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Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 18:45

Fenerbahçe31st, 2 pts
–Matchday 4
Liverpool3rd, 9 pts
16%Fenerbahçe win
21%Draw
63%Liverpool win

The model gives Fenerbahçe a 16% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Liverpool 63%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 30% now: a win would take it to 59%, a defeat to 21%. Liverpool's top-8 chance is 92% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 78%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeFenerbahçe: top 8Fenerbahçe: throughLiverpool: top 8Liverpool: through
Now<1%30%92%100%
Fenerbahçe win1%59%78%100%
Draw<1%33%87%100%
Liverpool win0%21%97%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.9Expected goals
49%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
14%Fenerbahçe clean sheet
42%Liverpool clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Fenerbahçe

2 points from 3 matches, goal difference -6

  1. MD1DRoma H1–1
  2. MD2LAston Villa A0–6
  3. MD3DSlavia Praha H2–2
  4. MD4Liverpool H this match4 November
  5. MD5Shakhtar Donetsk A25 November
  6. MD6LASK A9 December
  7. MD7Villarreal H20 January
  8. MD8Atlético de Madrid A27 January

Liverpool

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WAtlético de Madrid H2–1
  2. MD2WLASK A6–3
  3. MD3WVillarreal H4–3
  4. MD4Fenerbahçe A this match4 November
  5. MD5Club Brugge A25 November
  6. MD6Porto H9 December
  7. MD7Inter A19 January
  8. MD8Lens H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?

The model gives Fenerbahçe a 16% chance of winning and Liverpool 63%, with a draw at 21%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (11%).

Will both teams score in Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Fenerbahçe and 1.9 for Liverpool, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Fenerbahçe?

Fenerbahçe's qualification chance is 30% right now. A win would make it 59%, a draw 33% and a defeat 21%.

What does this match mean for Liverpool?

Liverpool's top-8 chance is 92% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 87% and a defeat 78%.

When is Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool played?

Wednesday 4 November, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →