Knockout Math
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Fenerbahçe vs Liverpool: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 18:45

Fenerbahçe19th, 1 pts
–Matchday 4
Liverpool14th, 3 pts
18%Fenerbahçe win
23%Draw
59%Liverpool win

The model gives Fenerbahçe a 18% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Liverpool 59%. Fenerbahçe's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 50%. Liverpool's top-8 chance is 77% now: a win would take it to 86%, a defeat to 56%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Fenerbahçe: top 8Fenerbahçe: throughLiverpool: top 8Liverpool: through
Now4%59%77%>99%
Fenerbahçe win12%83%56%99%
Draw4%63%69%>99%
Liverpool win2%50%86%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%

Other matchday 4 fixtures