Champions League matchday 7: what every team needs
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Updated 28 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase
Champions League matchday 7 is played on 19 January across 18 fixtures. The most is at stake for AEK Athens: a win would lift their chances of going through to 70%, a defeat would drop them to 29%.
Matchday 7 fixtures
Model probabilities for each fixture: home win, draw, away win.
- Tue 19 Jan, 18:45 Bodø/Glimt – Atlético de Madrid 23% · 25% · 52%
- Tue 19 Jan, 18:45 Galatasaray – Feyenoord 48% · 25% · 27%
- Tue 19 Jan, 21:00 AEK Athens – Roma 28% · 26% · 47%
- Tue 19 Jan, 21:00 Aston Villa – Borussia Dortmund 46% · 26% · 29%
- Tue 19 Jan, 21:00 Inter – Liverpool 37% · 26% · 37%
- Tue 19 Jan, 21:00 Lille – Slovan Bratislava 68% · 19% · 13%
- Tue 19 Jan, 21:00 Porto – Slavia Praha 59% · 22% · 18%
- Tue 19 Jan, 21:00 Real Madrid – LASK 89% · 8% · 3%
- Tue 19 Jan, 21:00 Stuttgart – Club Brugge 50% · 25% · 25%
- Wed 20 Jan, 18:45 Fenerbahçe – Villarreal 38% · 26% · 36%
- Wed 20 Jan, 18:45 Sabah – Napoli 9% · 16% · 75%
- Wed 20 Jan, 21:00 Como – Paris Saint-Germain 17% · 22% · 61%
- Wed 20 Jan, 21:00 Leipzig – Shakhtar Donetsk 57% · 23% · 19%
- Wed 20 Jan, 21:00 Lens – Manchester City 21% · 24% · 55%
- Wed 20 Jan, 21:00 Manchester United – Bayern München 22% · 24% · 54%
- Wed 20 Jan, 21:00 Real Betis – Arsenal 19% · 23% · 59%
- Wed 20 Jan, 21:00 Sporting CP – Barcelona 24% · 25% · 51%
- Wed 20 Jan, 21:00 Viking – PSV Eindhoven 21% · 24% · 56%
Who has the most at stake
The teams whose chances of going through move most with this matchday's result.
| Team | Fixture | Now | If they win | If they lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens | AEK Athens – Roma | 44% | 70% | 29% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Leipzig – Shakhtar Donetsk | 45% | 73% | 34% |
| Leipzig | Leipzig – Shakhtar Donetsk | 51% | 64% | 26% |
| Villarreal | Fenerbahçe – Villarreal | 62% | 82% | 44% |
| Porto | Porto – Slavia Praha | 65% | 77% | 39% |
Frequently asked questions
When is Champions League matchday 7 played?
On 19 January, across 18 fixtures.
Which team has the most at stake on matchday 7?
AEK Athens. A win lifts their chances of going through to 70%, a defeat drops them to 29% — a swing of about 42 percentage points.
What does the table look like before matchday 7?
Paris Saint-Germain lead with 3 points. The full table with every team's chances is on the Champions League page.
How many points are needed to qualify?
In the simulations 16 points usually secure the top 8, and 9 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.