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Galatasaray vs Stuttgart: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 18:45

Galatasaray23rd, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Stuttgart6th, 7 pts
39%Galatasaray win
26%Draw
35%Stuttgart win

The model gives Galatasaray a 39% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Stuttgart 35%. Galatasaray's chance of going through is 55% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 35%. Stuttgart's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to 100%, a defeat to 94%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeGalatasaray: top 8Galatasaray: throughStuttgart: top 8Stuttgart: through
Now1%55%29%97%
Galatasaray win2%77%14%94%
Draw<1%49%24%98%
Stuttgart win<1%35%50%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
29%Galatasaray clean sheet
26%Stuttgart clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Galatasaray

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LSporting CP A1–3
  2. MD2LBarcelona H1–4
  3. MD3WLille A4–2
  4. MD4Stuttgart H this match3 November
  5. MD5Aston Villa H24 November
  6. MD6AEK Athens A8 December
  7. MD7Feyenoord H19 January
  8. MD8Paris Saint-Germain A27 January

Stuttgart

7 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WViking H3–1
  2. MD2WSlovan Bratislava A3–0
  3. MD3DAtlético de Madrid H1–1
  4. MD4Galatasaray A this match3 November
  5. MD5Inter A25 November
  6. MD6Lille H9 December
  7. MD7Club Brugge H19 January
  8. MD8PSV Eindhoven A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Galatasaray vs Stuttgart?

The model gives Galatasaray a 39% chance of winning and Stuttgart 35%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Galatasaray vs Stuttgart?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Galatasaray and 1.3 for Stuttgart, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Galatasaray?

Galatasaray's qualification chance is 55% right now. A win would make it 77%, a draw 49% and a defeat 35%.

What does this match mean for Stuttgart?

Stuttgart's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it 100%, a draw 98% and a defeat 94%.

When is Galatasaray vs Stuttgart played?

Tuesday 3 November, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →