Knockout Math
Latviski

Galatasaray vs Stuttgart: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 18:45

Galatasaray29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Stuttgart7th, 3 pts
41%Galatasaray win
26%Draw
33%Stuttgart win

The model gives Galatasaray a 41% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Stuttgart 33%. Galatasaray's chance of going through is 44% now: a win would take it to 62%, a defeat to 26%. Stuttgart's chance of going through is 88% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 80%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Galatasaray: top 8Galatasaray: throughStuttgart: top 8Stuttgart: through
Now2%44%20%88%
Galatasaray win4%62%10%80%
Draw1%39%18%88%
Stuttgart win<1%26%36%97%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%

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