Knockout Math
Live
EN

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 18:45

Shakhtar Donetsk17th, 4 pts
–Matchday 4
Sporting CP12th, 6 pts
28%Shakhtar Donetsk win
26%Draw
47%Sporting CP win

The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 28% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sporting CP 47%. Shakhtar Donetsk's chance of going through is 62% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 46%. Sporting CP's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 78%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeShakhtar Donetsk: top 8Shakhtar Donetsk: throughSporting CP: top 8Sporting CP: through
Now2%62%13%90%
Shakhtar Donetsk win6%87%3%78%
Draw1%63%7%88%
Sporting CP win<1%46%22%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.5Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
22%Shakhtar Donetsk clean sheet
33%Sporting CP clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Shakhtar Donetsk

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DPSV Eindhoven A1–1
  2. MD2WAEK Athens H3–1
  3. MD3LInter A0–1
  4. MD4Sporting CP H this match3 November
  5. MD5Fenerbahçe H25 November
  6. MD6Slovan Bratislava A9 December
  7. MD7Leipzig A20 January
  8. MD8Real Madrid H27 January

Sporting CP

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WGalatasaray H3–1
  2. MD2WLens A2–0
  3. MD3LLASK H2–3
  4. MD4Shakhtar Donetsk A this match3 November
  5. MD5Manchester United H25 November
  6. MD6Roma A8 December
  7. MD7Barcelona H20 January
  8. MD8Manchester City A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting Lisbon?

The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 28% chance of winning and Sporting CP 47%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting Lisbon?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.5 for Sporting CP, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Shakhtar Donetsk?

Shakhtar Donetsk's qualification chance is 62% right now. A win would make it 87%, a draw 63% and a defeat 46%.

What does this match mean for Sporting CP?

Sporting CP's qualification chance is 90% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 88% and a defeat 78%.

When is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP played?

Tuesday 3 November, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →