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Atlético de Madrid vs Bayern München: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 21:00

Atlético de Madrid16th, 4 pts
–Matchday 4
Bayern München14th, 5 pts
29%Atlético de Madrid win
26%Draw
45%Bayern München win

The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 29% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Bayern München 45%. Atlético de Madrid's chance of going through is 96% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 93%. Bayern München's top-8 chance is 64% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 38%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAtlético de Madrid: top 8Atlético de Madrid: throughBayern München: top 8Bayern München: through
Now24%96%64%>99%
Atlético de Madrid win50%>99%38%99%
Draw20%97%59%>99%
Bayern München win9%93%83%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.5Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
23%Atlético de Madrid clean sheet
32%Bayern München clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Atlético de Madrid

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1LLiverpool A1–2
  2. MD2WManchester United H2–0
  3. MD3DStuttgart A1–1
  4. MD4Bayern München H this match3 November
  5. MD5Viking H25 November
  6. MD6PSV Eindhoven A9 December
  7. MD7Bodø/Glimt A19 January
  8. MD8Fenerbahçe H27 January

Bayern München

5 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WBodø/Glimt H5–0
  2. MD2DViking A3–3
  3. MD3DArsenal H2–2
  4. MD4Atlético de Madrid A this match3 November
  5. MD5Lille A25 November
  6. MD6Slavia Praha H8 December
  7. MD7Manchester United A20 January
  8. MD8Real Betis H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?

The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 29% chance of winning and Bayern München 45%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Atlético Madrid vs Bayern Munich?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Atlético de Madrid and 1.5 for Bayern München, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Atlético de Madrid?

Atlético de Madrid's qualification chance is 96% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 97% and a defeat 93%.

What does this match mean for Bayern München?

Bayern München's top-8 chance is 64% right now. A win would make it 83%, a draw 59% and a defeat 38%.

When is Atlético de Madrid vs Bayern München played?

Tuesday 3 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →