Atlético de Madrid vs Bayern München: what's at stake in the Champions League?
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Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
Atlético de Madrid25th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Bayern München2nd, 3 pts
29%Atlético de Madrid win
26%Draw
45%Bayern München win
The model gives Atlético de Madrid a 29% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Bayern München 45%. Atlético de Madrid's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 84%. Bayern München's top-8 chance is 83% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 69%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Atlético de Madrid: top 8 | Atlético de Madrid: through | Bayern München: top 8 | Bayern München: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 22% | 89% | 83% | >99% |
| Atlético de Madrid win | 41% | 97% | 69% | >99% |
| Draw | 19% | 90% | 81% | >99% |
| Bayern München win | 11% | 84% | 93% | 100% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
- Galatasaray – Stuttgart
- Barcelona – Aston Villa
- Feyenoord – Inter
- Bodø/Glimt – Lille
- LASK – Slovan Bratislava
- Manchester United – Roma
- Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain
- AEK Athens – Real Madrid
- Fenerbahçe – Liverpool
- Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis
- Porto – Napoli
- PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge
- Leipzig – Manchester City
- Lens – Como
- Slavia Praha – Arsenal
- Viking – Sabah