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Manchester United vs Roma: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 21:00

Manchester United21st, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Roma15th, 4 pts
45%Manchester United win
26%Draw
29%Roma win

The model gives Manchester United a 45% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Roma 29%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 60% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 37%. Roma's chance of going through is 77% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 64%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeManchester United: top 8Manchester United: throughRoma: top 8Roma: through
Now2%60%5%77%
Manchester United win4%80%1%64%
Draw1%51%3%80%
Roma win<1%37%13%95%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
32%Manchester United clean sheet
23%Roma clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Manchester United

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1WSabah H4–0
  2. MD2LAtlético de Madrid A0–2
  3. MD3LComo A1–4
  4. MD4Roma H this match3 November
  5. MD5Sporting CP A25 November
  6. MD6Leipzig H8 December
  7. MD7Bayern München H20 January
  8. MD8Villarreal A27 January

Roma

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1DFenerbahçe A1–1
  2. MD2LReal Madrid H3–4
  3. MD3WSlovan Bratislava H4–0
  4. MD4Manchester United A this match3 November
  5. MD5Paris Saint-Germain A25 November
  6. MD6Sporting CP H8 December
  7. MD7AEK Athens A19 January
  8. MD8Lille H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Man United vs Roma?

The model gives Manchester United a 45% chance of winning and Roma 29%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Man United vs Roma?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for Manchester United and 1.1 for Roma, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Manchester United?

Manchester United's qualification chance is 60% right now. A win would make it 80%, a draw 51% and a defeat 37%.

What does this match mean for Roma?

Roma's qualification chance is 77% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 80% and a defeat 64%.

When is Manchester United vs Roma played?

Tuesday 3 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →