Manchester United vs Roma: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
Manchester United4th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Roma17th, 1 pts
48%Manchester United win
25%Draw
26%Roma win
The model gives Manchester United a 48% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Roma 26%. Manchester United's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 73%. Roma's chance of going through is 73% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 63%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Manchester United: top 8 | Manchester United: through | Roma: top 8 | Roma: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 19% | 86% | 8% | 73% |
| Manchester United win | 29% | 95% | 3% | 63% |
| Draw | 12% | 83% | 6% | 76% |
| Roma win | 7% | 73% | 19% | 91% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
- Galatasaray – Stuttgart
- Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München
- Barcelona – Aston Villa
- Feyenoord – Inter
- Bodø/Glimt – Lille
- LASK – Slovan Bratislava
- Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain
- AEK Athens – Real Madrid
- Fenerbahçe – Liverpool
- Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis
- Porto – Napoli
- PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge
- Leipzig – Manchester City
- Lens – Como
- Slavia Praha – Arsenal
- Viking – Sabah