Champions League matchday 5: what every team needs
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Updated 28 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase
Champions League matchday 5 is played on 24 November across 18 fixtures. The most is at stake for AEK Athens: a win would lift their chances of going through to 74%, a defeat would drop them to 34%.
Matchday 5 fixtures
Model probabilities for each fixture: home win, draw, away win.
- Tue 24 Nov, 18:45 Bodø/Glimt – LASK 61% · 22% · 17%
- Tue 24 Nov, 18:45 Galatasaray – Aston Villa 31% · 26% · 43%
- Tue 24 Nov, 21:00 Arsenal – Borussia Dortmund 64% · 21% · 15%
- Tue 24 Nov, 21:00 Como – AEK Athens 60% · 22% · 18%
- Tue 24 Nov, 21:00 Feyenoord – Porto 36% · 26% · 37%
- Tue 24 Nov, 21:00 Leipzig – Lens 46% · 26% · 28%
- Tue 24 Nov, 21:00 Manchester City – Napoli 58% · 23% · 19%
- Tue 24 Nov, 21:00 Real Madrid – PSV Eindhoven 70% · 18% · 12%
- Tue 24 Nov, 21:00 Slovan Bratislava – Real Betis 20% · 23% · 57%
- Wed 25 Nov, 18:45 Sabah – Barcelona 4% · 9% · 87%
- Wed 25 Nov, 18:45 Slavia Praha – Villarreal 29% · 26% · 45%
- Wed 25 Nov, 21:00 Atlético de Madrid – Viking 81% · 13% · 6%
- Wed 25 Nov, 21:00 Club Brugge – Liverpool 18% · 22% · 60%
- Wed 25 Nov, 21:00 Inter – Stuttgart 61% · 22% · 17%
- Wed 25 Nov, 21:00 Lille – Bayern München 15% · 21% · 64%
- Wed 25 Nov, 21:00 Paris Saint-Germain – Roma 73% · 17% · 10%
- Wed 25 Nov, 21:00 Shakhtar Donetsk – Fenerbahçe 36% · 26% · 38%
- Wed 25 Nov, 21:00 Sporting CP – Manchester United 42% · 26% · 32%
Who has the most at stake
The teams whose chances of going through move most with this matchday's result.
| Team | Fixture | Now | If they win | If they lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens | Como – AEK Athens | 44% | 74% | 34% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Shakhtar Donetsk – Fenerbahçe | 45% | 67% | 28% |
| Villarreal | Slavia Praha – Villarreal | 62% | 79% | 40% |
| Fenerbahçe | Shakhtar Donetsk – Fenerbahçe | 61% | 80% | 43% |
| Leipzig | Leipzig – Lens | 51% | 67% | 30% |
Frequently asked questions
When is Champions League matchday 5 played?
On 24 November, across 18 fixtures.
Which team has the most at stake on matchday 5?
AEK Athens. A win lifts their chances of going through to 74%, a defeat drops them to 34% — a swing of about 40 percentage points.
What does the table look like before matchday 5?
Paris Saint-Germain lead with 3 points. The full table with every team's chances is on the Champions League page.
How many points are needed to qualify?
In the simulations 16 points usually secure the top 8, and 9 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.