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Barcelona vs Aston Villa: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 21:00

Barcelona8th, 6 pts
–Matchday 4
Aston Villa2nd, 9 pts
59%Barcelona win
23%Draw
19%Aston Villa win

The model gives Barcelona a 59% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Aston Villa 19%. Barcelona's top-8 chance is 71% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 43%. Aston Villa's top-8 chance is 62% now: a win would take it to 89%, a defeat to 52%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeBarcelona: top 8Barcelona: throughAston Villa: top 8Aston Villa: through
Now71%>99%62%100%
Barcelona win85%100%52%>99%
Draw60%>99%68%100%
Aston Villa win43%99%89%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
40%Barcelona clean sheet
16%Aston Villa clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
3–06%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Barcelona

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WFeyenoord H5–1
  2. MD2WGalatasaray A4–1
  3. MD3LParis Saint-Germain A2–4
  4. MD4Aston Villa H this match3 November
  5. MD5Sabah A25 November
  6. MD6Manchester City H8 December
  7. MD7Sporting CP A20 January
  8. MD8Como H27 January

Aston Villa

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +9

  1. MD1WClub Brugge A3–2
  2. MD2WFenerbahçe H6–0
  3. MD3WViking H3–1
  4. MD4Barcelona A this match3 November
  5. MD5Galatasaray A24 November
  6. MD6Paris Saint-Germain H8 December
  7. MD7Borussia Dortmund H19 January
  8. MD8Slavia Praha A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Barcelona vs Aston Villa?

The model gives Barcelona a 59% chance of winning and Aston Villa 19%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Aston Villa?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Barcelona and 0.9 for Aston Villa, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Barcelona?

Barcelona's top-8 chance is 71% right now. A win would make it 85%, a draw 60% and a defeat 43%.

What does this match mean for Aston Villa?

Aston Villa's top-8 chance is 62% right now. A win would make it 89%, a draw 68% and a defeat 52%.

When is Barcelona vs Aston Villa played?

Tuesday 3 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →