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PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 21:00

PSV Eindhoven18th, 4 pts
–Matchday 4
Club Brugge11th, 6 pts
46%PSV Eindhoven win
26%Draw
28%Club Brugge win

The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 46% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Club Brugge 28%. PSV Eindhoven's chance of going through is 77% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 57%. Club Brugge's chance of going through is 87% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 78%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomePSV Eindhoven: top 8PSV Eindhoven: throughClub Brugge: top 8Club Brugge: through
Now5%77%10%87%
PSV Eindhoven win9%92%3%78%
Draw1%73%8%89%
Club Brugge win1%57%22%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
33%PSV Eindhoven clean sheet
22%Club Brugge clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

PSV Eindhoven

4 points from 3 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DShakhtar Donetsk H1–1
  2. MD2LLeipzig A0–1
  3. MD3WPorto A1–0
  4. MD4Club Brugge H this match4 November
  5. MD5Real Madrid A24 November
  6. MD6Atlético de Madrid H9 December
  7. MD7Viking A20 January
  8. MD8Stuttgart H27 January

Club Brugge

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1LAston Villa H2–3
  2. MD2WInter A4–3
  3. MD3WLens H3–0
  4. MD4PSV Eindhoven A this match4 November
  5. MD5Liverpool H25 November
  6. MD6Napoli A8 December
  7. MD7Stuttgart A19 January
  8. MD8Bodø/Glimt H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in PSV vs Club Brugge?

The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 46% chance of winning and Club Brugge 28%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in PSV vs Club Brugge?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.1 for Club Brugge, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for PSV Eindhoven?

PSV Eindhoven's qualification chance is 77% right now. A win would make it 92%, a draw 73% and a defeat 57%.

What does this match mean for Club Brugge?

Club Brugge's qualification chance is 87% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 89% and a defeat 78%.

When is PSV Eindhoven vs Club Brugge played?

Wednesday 4 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →