Porto vs Napoli: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
Porto31st, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Napoli28th, 0 pts
36%Porto win
26%Draw
38%Napoli win
The model gives Porto a 36% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Napoli 38%. Porto's chance of going through is 66% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 52%. Napoli's chance of going through is 90% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 82%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Porto: top 8 | Porto: through | Napoli: top 8 | Napoli: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 6% | 66% | 21% | 90% |
| Porto win | 12% | 83% | 9% | 82% |
| Draw | 4% | 64% | 15% | 90% |
| Napoli win | 2% | 52% | 37% | 97% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
- Galatasaray – Stuttgart
- Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München
- Barcelona – Aston Villa
- Feyenoord – Inter
- Bodø/Glimt – Lille
- LASK – Slovan Bratislava
- Manchester United – Roma
- Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain
- AEK Athens – Real Madrid
- Fenerbahçe – Liverpool
- Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis
- PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge
- Leipzig – Manchester City
- Lens – Como
- Slavia Praha – Arsenal
- Viking – Sabah