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Porto vs Napoli: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 21:00

Porto34th, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Napoli22nd, 3 pts
34%Porto win
26%Draw
39%Napoli win

The model gives Porto a 34% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Napoli 39%. Porto's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 50%, a defeat to 12%. Napoli's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 78%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomePorto: top 8Porto: throughNapoli: top 8Napoli: through
Now<1%27%9%89%
Porto win<1%50%1%78%
Draw0%21%4%90%
Napoli win0%12%18%98%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
26%Porto clean sheet
29%Napoli clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Porto

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LManchester City H0–2
  2. MD2LReal Betis A2–3
  3. MD3LPSV Eindhoven H0–1
  4. MD4Napoli H this match4 November
  5. MD5Feyenoord A24 November
  6. MD6Liverpool A9 December
  7. MD7Slavia Praha H19 January
  8. MD8LASK A27 January

Napoli

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LArsenal H0–1
  2. MD2LVillarreal A1–3
  3. MD3WBodø/Glimt H4–3
  4. MD4Porto A this match4 November
  5. MD5Manchester City A24 November
  6. MD6Club Brugge H8 December
  7. MD7Sabah A20 January
  8. MD8Viking H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Porto vs Napoli?

The model gives Porto a 34% chance of winning and Napoli 39%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Porto vs Napoli?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Porto and 1.3 for Napoli, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Porto?

Porto's qualification chance is 27% right now. A win would make it 50%, a draw 21% and a defeat 12%.

What does this match mean for Napoli?

Napoli's qualification chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 90% and a defeat 78%.

When is Porto vs Napoli played?

Wednesday 4 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →