Knockout Math
Latviski

Lens vs Como: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 21:00

Lens10th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Como5th, 3 pts
43%Lens win
26%Draw
31%Como win

The model gives Lens a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Como 31%. Lens's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 59%. Como's chance of going through is 78% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 66%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Lens: top 8Lens: throughComo: top 8Como: through
Now10%76%10%78%
Lens win17%90%4%66%
Draw6%72%8%78%
Como win3%59%21%93%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

Other matchday 4 fixtures