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Lens vs Como: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 21:00

Lens27th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Como9th, 6 pts
37%Lens win
26%Draw
37%Como win

The model gives Lens a 37% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Como 37%. Lens's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 62%, a defeat to 19%. Como's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 81%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLens: top 8Lens: throughComo: top 8Como: through
Now<1%38%11%91%
Lens win1%62%3%81%
Draw<1%31%6%91%
Como win<1%19%22%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
27%Lens clean sheet
28%Como clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lens

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1WSlavia Praha A3–2
  2. MD2LSporting CP H0–2
  3. MD3LClub Brugge A0–3
  4. MD4Como H this match4 November
  5. MD5Leipzig A24 November
  6. MD6Bodø/Glimt H9 December
  7. MD7Manchester City H20 January
  8. MD8Liverpool A27 January

Como

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WLeipzig H4–1
  2. MD2LFeyenoord A2–3
  3. MD3WManchester United H4–1
  4. MD4Lens A this match4 November
  5. MD5AEK Athens H24 November
  6. MD6Real Betis A9 December
  7. MD7Paris Saint-Germain H20 January
  8. MD8Barcelona A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lens vs Como?

The model gives Lens a 37% chance of winning and Como 37%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Lens vs Como?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lens and 1.3 for Como, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lens?

Lens's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 62%, a draw 31% and a defeat 19%.

What does this match mean for Como?

Como's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 91% and a defeat 81%.

When is Lens vs Como played?

Wednesday 4 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →