Lens vs Como: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
Lens10th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Como5th, 3 pts
43%Lens win
26%Draw
31%Como win
The model gives Lens a 43% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Como 31%. Lens's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 59%. Como's chance of going through is 78% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 66%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Lens: top 8 | Lens: through | Como: top 8 | Como: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 10% | 76% | 10% | 78% |
| Lens win | 17% | 90% | 4% | 66% |
| Draw | 6% | 72% | 8% | 78% |
| Como win | 3% | 59% | 21% | 93% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
- Galatasaray – Stuttgart
- Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München
- Barcelona – Aston Villa
- Feyenoord – Inter
- Bodø/Glimt – Lille
- LASK – Slovan Bratislava
- Manchester United – Roma
- Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain
- AEK Athens – Real Madrid
- Fenerbahçe – Liverpool
- Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis
- Porto – Napoli
- PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge
- Leipzig – Manchester City
- Slavia Praha – Arsenal
- Viking – Sabah