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LASK vs Slovan Bratislava: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 21:00

LASK24th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Slovan Bratislava36th, 0 pts
50%LASK win
25%Draw
25%Slovan Bratislava win

The model gives LASK a 50% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Slovan Bratislava 25%. LASK's chance of going through is 31% now: a win would take it to 47%, a defeat to 11%. Slovan Bratislava's chance of going through is 3% now: a win would take it to 8%, a defeat to 1%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLASK: top 8LASK: throughSlovan Bratislava: top 8Slovan Bratislava: through
Now<1%31%0%3%
LASK win<1%47%0%1%
Draw<1%18%0%2%
Slovan Bratislava win0%11%0%8%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
35%LASK clean sheet
20%Slovan Bratislava clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

LASK

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LAEK Athens A0–1
  2. MD2LLiverpool H3–6
  3. MD3WSporting CP A3–2
  4. MD4Slovan Bratislava H this match3 November
  5. MD5Bodø/Glimt A24 November
  6. MD6Fenerbahçe H9 December
  7. MD7Real Madrid A19 January
  8. MD8Porto H27 January

Slovan Bratislava

0 points from 3 matches, goal difference -12

  1. MD1LParis Saint-Germain A1–6
  2. MD2LStuttgart H0–3
  3. MD3LRoma A0–4
  4. MD4LASK A this match3 November
  5. MD5Real Betis H24 November
  6. MD6Shakhtar Donetsk H9 December
  7. MD7Lille A19 January
  8. MD8Inter H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in LASK vs Slovan Bratislava?

The model gives LASK a 50% chance of winning and Slovan Bratislava 25%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in LASK vs Slovan Bratislava?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for LASK and 1.1 for Slovan Bratislava, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for LASK?

LASK's qualification chance is 31% right now. A win would make it 47%, a draw 18% and a defeat 11%.

What does this match mean for Slovan Bratislava?

Slovan Bratislava's qualification chance is 3% right now. A win would make it 8%, a draw 2% and a defeat 1%.

When is LASK vs Slovan Bratislava played?

Tuesday 3 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →