Knockout Math
Live
EN

Feyenoord vs Inter: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 21:00

Feyenoord26th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Inter20th, 3 pts
23%Feyenoord win
24%Draw
53%Inter win

The model gives Feyenoord a 23% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Inter 53%. Feyenoord's chance of going through is 57% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 44%. Inter's chance of going through is 89% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 74%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeFeyenoord: top 8Feyenoord: throughInter: top 8Inter: through
Now2%57%11%89%
Feyenoord win6%83%2%74%
Draw1%59%5%86%
Inter win<1%44%18%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.7Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
19%Feyenoord clean sheet
37%Inter clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–112%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Feyenoord

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LBarcelona A1–5
  2. MD2WComo H3–2
  3. MD3LReal Betis A0–1
  4. MD4Inter H this match3 November
  5. MD5Porto H24 November
  6. MD6Viking A8 December
  7. MD7Galatasaray A19 January
  8. MD8Leipzig H27 January

Inter

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LReal Madrid A1–2
  2. MD2LClub Brugge H3–4
  3. MD3WShakhtar Donetsk H1–0
  4. MD4Feyenoord A this match3 November
  5. MD5Stuttgart H25 November
  6. MD6Borussia Dortmund A9 December
  7. MD7Liverpool H19 January
  8. MD8Slovan Bratislava A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Feyenoord vs Inter Milan?

The model gives Feyenoord a 23% chance of winning and Inter 53%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Inter Milan?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Feyenoord and 1.7 for Inter, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Feyenoord?

Feyenoord's qualification chance is 57% right now. A win would make it 83%, a draw 59% and a defeat 44%.

What does this match mean for Inter?

Inter's qualification chance is 89% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 86% and a defeat 74%.

When is Feyenoord vs Inter played?

Tuesday 3 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →