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Slavia Praha vs Arsenal: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 21:00

Slavia Praha32nd, 1 pt
–Matchday 4
Arsenal7th, 7 pts
9%Slavia Praha win
16%Draw
75%Arsenal win

The model gives Slavia Praha a 9% chance of winning, a draw 16% and Arsenal 75%. Slavia Praha's chance of going through is 4% now: a win would take it to 17%, a defeat to 2%. Arsenal's top-8 chance is 86% now: a win would take it to 92%, a defeat to 60%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeSlavia Praha: top 8Slavia Praha: throughArsenal: top 8Arsenal: through
Now<1%4%86%100%
Slavia Praha win<1%17%60%>99%
Draw0%5%74%100%
Arsenal win0%2%92%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.7 – 2.4Expected goals
46%Both teams score
59%3 or more goals
9%Slavia Praha clean sheet
50%Arsenal clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–213%
0–111%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Slavia Praha

1 point from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LLens H2–3
  2. MD2LSabah A0–2
  3. MD3DFenerbahçe A2–2
  4. MD4Arsenal H this match4 November
  5. MD5Villarreal H25 November
  6. MD6Bayern München A8 December
  7. MD7Porto A19 January
  8. MD8Aston Villa H27 January

Arsenal

7 points from 3 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WNapoli A1–0
  2. MD2WLille H3–0
  3. MD3DBayern München A2–2
  4. MD4Slavia Praha A this match4 November
  5. MD5Borussia Dortmund H24 November
  6. MD6Real Madrid H9 December
  7. MD7Real Betis A20 January
  8. MD8Sabah H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Slavia Prague vs Arsenal?

The model gives Slavia Praha a 9% chance of winning and Arsenal 75%, with a draw at 16%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–2 (13%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Slavia Prague vs Arsenal?

The model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance. Expected goals are 0.7 for Slavia Praha and 2.4 for Arsenal, and the match has 3 or more goals in 59% of cases.

What does this match mean for Slavia Praha?

Slavia Praha's qualification chance is 4% right now. A win would make it 17%, a draw 5% and a defeat 2%.

What does this match mean for Arsenal?

Arsenal's top-8 chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 92%, a draw 74% and a defeat 60%.

When is Slavia Praha vs Arsenal played?

Wednesday 4 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →