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AEK Athens vs Real Madrid: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 18:45

AEK Athens29th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Real Madrid4th, 9 pts
9%AEK Athens win
16%Draw
75%Real Madrid win

The model gives AEK Athens a 9% chance of winning, a draw 16% and Real Madrid 75%. AEK Athens's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 51%, a defeat to 14%. Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 84%. The most likely score is 0–2 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAEK Athens: top 8AEK Athens: throughReal Madrid: top 8Real Madrid: through
Now<1%19%96%100%
AEK Athens win1%51%84%100%
Draw<1%23%93%100%
Real Madrid win<1%14%99%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.7 – 2.4Expected goals
46%Both teams score
59%3 or more goals
9%AEK Athens clean sheet
50%Real Madrid clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–213%
0–111%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

AEK Athens

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1WLASK H1–0
  2. MD2LShakhtar Donetsk A1–3
  3. MD3LManchester City A1–5
  4. MD4Real Madrid H this match4 November
  5. MD5Como A24 November
  6. MD6Galatasaray H8 December
  7. MD7Roma H19 January
  8. MD8Borussia Dortmund A27 January

Real Madrid

9 points from 3 matches, goal difference +5

  1. MD1WInter H2–1
  2. MD2WRoma A4–3
  3. MD3WLeipzig H4–1
  4. MD4AEK Athens A this match4 November
  5. MD5PSV Eindhoven H24 November
  6. MD6Arsenal A9 December
  7. MD7LASK H19 January
  8. MD8Shakhtar Donetsk A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in AEK Athens vs Real Madrid?

The model gives AEK Athens a 9% chance of winning and Real Madrid 75%, with a draw at 16%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–2 (13%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in AEK Athens vs Real Madrid?

The model gives both teams scoring a 46% chance. Expected goals are 0.7 for AEK Athens and 2.4 for Real Madrid, and the match has 3 or more goals in 59% of cases.

What does this match mean for AEK Athens?

AEK Athens's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 51%, a draw 23% and a defeat 14%.

What does this match mean for Real Madrid?

Real Madrid's top-8 chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 93% and a defeat 84%.

When is AEK Athens vs Real Madrid played?

Wednesday 4 November, 18:45 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →