Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Tuesday 3 November, 21:00
The model gives Villarreal a 16% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Paris Saint-Germain 62%. Villarreal's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 76%. Paris Saint-Germain's top-8 chance is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 88%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Villarreal: top 8 | Villarreal: through | Paris Saint-Germain: top 8 | Paris Saint-Germain: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 5% | 82% | 96% | 100% |
| Villarreal win | 20% | 97% | 88% | 100% |
| Draw | 6% | 86% | 94% | 100% |
| Paris Saint-Germain win | 2% | 76% | 99% | 100% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Villarreal
- MD1LBorussia Dortmund A2–3
- MD2WNapoli H3–1
- MD3LLiverpool A3–4
- MD4Paris Saint-Germain H this match3 November
- MD5Slavia Praha A25 November
- MD6Sabah H8 December
- MD7Fenerbahçe A20 January
- MD8Manchester United H27 January
Paris Saint-Germain
- MD1WSlovan Bratislava H6–1
- MD2WManchester City A4–2
- MD3WBarcelona H4–2
- MD4Villarreal A this match3 November
- MD5Roma H25 November
- MD6Aston Villa A8 December
- MD7Como A20 January
- MD8Galatasaray H27 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Villarreal vs PSG?
The model gives Villarreal a 16% chance of winning and Paris Saint-Germain 62%, with a draw at 22%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (11%).
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs PSG?
The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Villarreal and 1.9 for Paris Saint-Germain, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.
What does this match mean for Villarreal?
Villarreal's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 86% and a defeat 76%.
What does this match mean for Paris Saint-Germain?
Paris Saint-Germain's top-8 chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 94% and a defeat 88%.
When is Villarreal vs Paris Saint-Germain played?
Tuesday 3 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
- Galatasaray – Stuttgart
- Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München
- Barcelona – Aston Villa
- Feyenoord – Inter
- Bodø/Glimt – Lille
- LASK – Slovan Bratislava
- Manchester United – Roma
- AEK Athens – Real Madrid
- Fenerbahçe – Liverpool
- Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis
- Porto – Napoli
- PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge
- Leipzig – Manchester City
- Lens – Como
- Slavia Praha – Arsenal
- Viking – Sabah