Leipzig vs Manchester City: what's at stake in the Champions League?
← Champions League: full table and chances
Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 21:00
Leipzig32nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 4
Manchester City8th, 3 pts
26%Leipzig win
25%Draw
49%Manchester City win
The model gives Leipzig a 26% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Manchester City 49%. Leipzig's chance of going through is 57% now: a win would take it to 79%, a defeat to 45%. Manchester City's chance of going through is 98% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Leipzig: top 8 | Leipzig: through | Manchester City: top 8 | Manchester City: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 4% | 57% | 54% | 98% |
| Leipzig win | 10% | 79% | 34% | 96% |
| Draw | 3% | 57% | 46% | 98% |
| Manchester City win | 1% | 45% | 68% | >99% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%
Other matchday 4 fixtures
- Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP
- Galatasaray – Stuttgart
- Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München
- Barcelona – Aston Villa
- Feyenoord – Inter
- Bodø/Glimt – Lille
- LASK – Slovan Bratislava
- Manchester United – Roma
- Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain
- AEK Athens – Real Madrid
- Fenerbahçe – Liverpool
- Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis
- Porto – Napoli
- PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge
- Lens – Como
- Slavia Praha – Arsenal
- Viking – Sabah