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Leipzig vs Manchester City: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 21:00

Leipzig30th, 3 pts
–Matchday 4
Manchester City10th, 6 pts
24%Leipzig win
25%Draw
51%Manchester City win

The model gives Leipzig a 24% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Manchester City 51%. Leipzig's chance of going through is 64% now: a win would take it to 87%, a defeat to 53%. Manchester City's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 96%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLeipzig: top 8Leipzig: throughManchester City: top 8Manchester City: through
Now3%64%45%99%
Leipzig win8%87%20%96%
Draw2%66%34%98%
Manchester City win<1%53%62%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.6Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
20%Leipzig clean sheet
36%Manchester City clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Leipzig

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LComo A1–4
  2. MD2WPSV Eindhoven H1–0
  3. MD3LReal Madrid A1–4
  4. MD4Manchester City H this match4 November
  5. MD5Lens H24 November
  6. MD6Manchester United A8 December
  7. MD7Shakhtar Donetsk H20 January
  8. MD8Feyenoord A27 January

Manchester City

6 points from 3 matches, goal difference +4

  1. MD1WPorto A2–0
  2. MD2LParis Saint-Germain H2–4
  3. MD3WAEK Athens H5–1
  4. MD4Leipzig A this match4 November
  5. MD5Napoli H24 November
  6. MD6Barcelona A8 December
  7. MD7Lens A20 January
  8. MD8Sporting CP H27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in RB Leipzig vs Man City?

The model gives Leipzig a 24% chance of winning and Manchester City 51%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Man City?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Leipzig and 1.6 for Manchester City, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Leipzig?

Leipzig's qualification chance is 64% right now. A win would make it 87%, a draw 66% and a defeat 53%.

What does this match mean for Manchester City?

Manchester City's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 98% and a defeat 96%.

When is Leipzig vs Manchester City played?

Wednesday 4 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →