Champions League matchday 4: what every team needs
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Updated 28 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase
Champions League matchday 4 is played on 3 November across 18 fixtures. The most is at stake for Lille: a win would lift their chances of going through to 67%, a defeat would drop them to 27%.
Matchday 4 fixtures
Model probabilities for each fixture: home win, draw, away win.
- Tue 3 Nov, 18:45 Galatasaray – Stuttgart 39% · 26% · 34%
- Tue 3 Nov, 18:45 Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP 27% · 25% · 48%
- Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Atlético de Madrid – Bayern München 28% · 26% · 46%
- Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Barcelona – Aston Villa 61% · 22% · 17%
- Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Bodø/Glimt – Lille 39% · 26% · 35%
- Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Feyenoord – Inter 21% · 24% · 55%
- Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 LASK – Slovan Bratislava 46% · 26% · 28%
- Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Manchester United – Roma 49% · 25% · 26%
- Tue 3 Nov, 21:00 Villarreal – Paris Saint-Germain 18% · 22% · 60%
- Wed 4 Nov, 18:45 AEK Athens – Real Madrid 11% · 18% · 71%
- Wed 4 Nov, 18:45 Fenerbahçe – Liverpool 18% · 22% · 60%
- Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Borussia Dortmund – Real Betis 54% · 24% · 22%
- Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Leipzig – Manchester City 23% · 24% · 53%
- Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Lens – Como 41% · 26% · 32%
- Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Porto – Napoli 35% · 26% · 38%
- Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 PSV Eindhoven – Club Brugge 49% · 25% · 25%
- Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Slavia Praha – Arsenal 11% · 17% · 72%
- Wed 4 Nov, 21:00 Viking – Sabah 55% · 24% · 21%
Who has the most at stake
The teams whose chances of going through move most with this matchday's result.
| Team | Fixture | Now | If they win | If they lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | Bodø/Glimt – Lille | 45% | 67% | 27% |
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Shakhtar Donetsk – Sporting CP | 45% | 70% | 31% |
| AEK Athens | AEK Athens – Real Madrid | 44% | 75% | 38% |
| Bodø/Glimt | Bodø/Glimt – Lille | 40% | 59% | 23% |
| Galatasaray | Galatasaray – Stuttgart | 41% | 60% | 25% |
Frequently asked questions
When is Champions League matchday 4 played?
On 3 November, across 18 fixtures.
Which team has the most at stake on matchday 4?
Lille. A win lifts their chances of going through to 67%, a defeat drops them to 27% — a swing of about 40 percentage points.
What does the table look like before matchday 4?
Paris Saint-Germain lead with 3 points. The full table with every team's chances is on the Champions League page.
How many points are needed to qualify?
In the simulations 16 points usually secure the top 8, and 9 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.