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Viking vs Sabah: what's at stake in the Champions League?

← Champions League: full table and chances

Matchday 4 · Wednesday 4 November, 21:00

Viking33rd, 1 pt
–Matchday 4
Sabah25th, 3 pts
53%Viking win
24%Draw
23%Sabah win

The model gives Viking a 53% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Sabah 23%. Viking's chance of going through is 9% now: a win would take it to 15%, a defeat to 1%. Sabah's chance of going through is 4% now: a win would take it to 12%, a defeat to 1%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeViking: top 8Viking: throughSabah: top 8Sabah: through
Now<1%9%<1%4%
Viking win<1%15%0%1%
Draw0%3%0%2%
Sabah win0%1%<1%12%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
37%Viking clean sheet
19%Sabah clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Champions League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Viking

1 point from 3 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LStuttgart A1–3
  2. MD2DBayern München H3–3
  3. MD3LAston Villa A1–3
  4. MD4Sabah H this match4 November
  5. MD5Atlético de Madrid A25 November
  6. MD6Feyenoord H8 December
  7. MD7PSV Eindhoven H20 January
  8. MD8Napoli A27 January

Sabah

3 points from 3 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1LManchester United A0–4
  2. MD2WSlavia Praha H2–0
  3. MD3LBorussia Dortmund H1–2
  4. MD4Viking A this match4 November
  5. MD5Barcelona H25 November
  6. MD6Villarreal A8 December
  7. MD7Napoli H20 January
  8. MD8Arsenal A27 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Viking vs Sabah?

The model gives Viking a 53% chance of winning and Sabah 23%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Viking vs Sabah?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Viking and 1.0 for Sabah, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Viking?

Viking's qualification chance is 9% right now. A win would make it 15%, a draw 3% and a defeat 1%.

What does this match mean for Sabah?

Sabah's qualification chance is 4% right now. A win would make it 12%, a draw 2% and a defeat 1%.

When is Viking vs Sabah played?

Wednesday 4 November, 21:00 (Champions League, matchday 4).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 4 fixtures

Full matchday 4: what every team needs →