Champions League matchday 3: what every team needs
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Updated 28 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase
Champions League matchday 3 is played on 20 October across 18 fixtures. The most is at stake for Lille: a win would lift their chances of going through to 63%, a defeat would drop them to 24%.
Matchday 3 fixtures
Model probabilities for each fixture: home win, draw, away win.
- Tue 20 Oct, 18:45 Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha 54% · 24% · 22%
- Tue 20 Oct, 18:45 Sabah – Borussia Dortmund 10% · 17% · 74%
- Tue 20 Oct, 21:00 Liverpool – Villarreal 68% · 19% · 13%
- Tue 20 Oct, 21:00 Manchester City – AEK Athens 81% · 13% · 6%
- Tue 20 Oct, 21:00 Napoli – Bodø/Glimt 62% · 21% · 16%
- Tue 20 Oct, 21:00 Paris Saint-Germain – Barcelona 49% · 25% · 26%
- Tue 20 Oct, 21:00 Porto – PSV Eindhoven 44% · 26% · 30%
- Tue 20 Oct, 21:00 Roma – Slovan Bratislava 73% · 17% · 10%
- Tue 20 Oct, 21:00 Stuttgart – Atlético de Madrid 32% · 26% · 42%
- Wed 21 Oct, 18:45 Como – Manchester United 37% · 26% · 36%
- Wed 21 Oct, 18:45 Lille – Galatasaray 44% · 26% · 30%
- Wed 21 Oct, 21:00 Aston Villa – Viking 78% · 14% · 7%
- Wed 21 Oct, 21:00 Bayern München – Arsenal 47% · 26% · 28%
- Wed 21 Oct, 21:00 Club Brugge – Lens 42% · 26% · 32%
- Wed 21 Oct, 21:00 Inter – Shakhtar Donetsk 75% · 16% · 9%
- Wed 21 Oct, 21:00 Real Betis – Feyenoord 51% · 25% · 25%
- Wed 21 Oct, 21:00 Real Madrid – Leipzig 71% · 18% · 11%
- Wed 21 Oct, 21:00 Sporting CP – LASK 74% · 17% · 10%
Who has the most at stake
The teams whose chances of going through move most with this matchday's result.
| Team | Fixture | Now | If they win | If they lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | Lille – Galatasaray | 45% | 63% | 24% |
| AEK Athens | Manchester City – AEK Athens | 44% | 78% | 40% |
| Galatasaray | Lille – Galatasaray | 41% | 65% | 27% |
| Fenerbahçe | Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha | 61% | 75% | 37% |
| Bodø/Glimt | Napoli – Bodø/Glimt | 40% | 69% | 32% |
Frequently asked questions
When is Champions League matchday 3 played?
On 20 October, across 18 fixtures.
Which team has the most at stake on matchday 3?
Lille. A win lifts their chances of going through to 63%, a defeat drops them to 24% — a swing of about 39 percentage points.
What does the table look like before matchday 3?
Paris Saint-Germain lead with 3 points. The full table with every team's chances is on the Champions League page.
How many points are needed to qualify?
In the simulations 16 points usually secure the top 8, and 9 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.