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Europa League matchday 3: what every team needs

← Europa League: full table and chances

Updated 28 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase

Europa League matchday 3 is played on 22 October across 18 fixtures. The most is at stake for Sturm Graz: a win would lift their chances of going through to 76%, a defeat would drop them to 39%.

Matchday 3 fixtures

Model probabilities for each fixture: home win, draw, away win.

  1. Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar 17% · 22% · 61%
  2. Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Ferencváros – Torreense 59% · 23% · 18%
  3. Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 GNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen 45% · 26% · 29%
  4. Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Juventus – Rennes 64% · 21% · 15%
  5. Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Lech Poznań – Sunderland 31% · 26% · 43%
  6. Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 OFI Crete – Leverkusen 14% · 20% · 66%
  7. Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Sturm Graz – Marseille 28% · 26% · 46%
  8. Thu 22 Oct, 18:45 Union SG – Hapoel Beer-Sheva 64% · 21% · 15%
  9. Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace 37% · 26% · 37%
  10. Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Bournemouth – Milan 36% · 26% · 37%
  11. Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Celje – Salzburg 27% · 25% · 48%
  12. Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Celtic – Celta 39% · 26% · 35%
  13. Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Hoffenheim – Lyon 38% · 26% · 36%
  14. Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Jagiellonia – Anderlecht 36% · 26% · 37%
  15. Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad 21% · 24% · 55%
  16. Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Olympiacos – Sparta Praha 52% · 25% · 24%
  17. Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Omonia – Benfica 16% · 21% · 63%
  18. Thu 22 Oct, 21:00 Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia 55% · 24% · 21%

Who has the most at stake

The teams whose chances of going through move most with this matchday's result.

TeamFixtureNowIf they winIf they lose
Sturm GrazSturm Graz – Marseille53%76%39%
JagielloniaJagiellonia – Anderlecht41%62%25%
CelticCeltic – Celta46%65%29%
GNK DinamoGNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen55%71%35%
OmoniaOmonia – Benfica49%77%41%

Frequently asked questions

When is Europa League matchday 3 played?

On 22 October, across 18 fixtures.

Which team has the most at stake on matchday 3?

Sturm Graz. A win lifts their chances of going through to 76%, a defeat drops them to 39% — a swing of about 37 percentage points.

What does the table look like before matchday 3?

Juventus lead with 3 points. The full table with every team's chances is on the Europa League page.

How many points are needed to qualify?

In the simulations 15 points usually secure the top 8, and 9 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.

Other matchdays