Knockout Math
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GNK Dinamo vs N.E.C. Nijmegen: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

GNK Dinamo19th, 1 pts
–Matchday 3
N.E.C. Nijmegen36th, 0 pts
44%GNK Dinamo win
26%Draw
30%N.E.C. Nijmegen win

The model gives GNK Dinamo a 44% chance of winning, a draw 26% and N.E.C. Nijmegen 30%. GNK Dinamo's chance of going through is 54% now: a win would take it to 71%, a defeat to 34%. N.E.C. Nijmegen's chance of going through is 63% now: a win would take it to 82%, a defeat to 49%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

GNK Dinamo: top 8GNK Dinamo: throughN.E.C. Nijmegen: top 8N.E.C. Nijmegen: through
Now6%54%9%63%
GNK Dinamo win10%71%3%49%
Draw4%48%7%63%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win2%34%19%82%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%

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