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GNK Dinamo vs N.E.C. Nijmegen: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

GNK Dinamo14th, 4 pts
–Matchday 3
N.E.C. Nijmegen27th, 1 pt
46%GNK Dinamo win
26%Draw
28%N.E.C. Nijmegen win

The model gives GNK Dinamo a 46% chance of winning, a draw 26% and N.E.C. Nijmegen 28%. GNK Dinamo's chance of going through is 76% now: a win would take it to 91%, a defeat to 56%. N.E.C. Nijmegen's chance of going through is 53% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 39%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeGNK Dinamo: top 8GNK Dinamo: throughN.E.C. Nijmegen: top 8N.E.C. Nijmegen: through
Now8%76%2%53%
GNK Dinamo win14%91%<1%39%
Draw4%72%2%53%
N.E.C. Nijmegen win2%56%6%77%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.5 – 1.1Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
33%GNK Dinamo clean sheet
22%N.E.C. Nijmegen clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

GNK Dinamo

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1DHapoel Beer-Sheva A0–0
  2. MD2WAnderlecht H1–0
  3. MD3N.E.C. Nijmegen H this match22 October
  4. MD4Sunderland A5 November
  5. MD5Leverkusen H26 November
  6. MD6Rennes A10 December
  7. MD7AZ Alkmaar A21 January
  8. MD8Sturm Graz H28 January

N.E.C. Nijmegen

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LJuventus A0–5
  2. MD2DLevski Sofia H1–1
  3. MD3GNK Dinamo A this match22 October
  4. MD4Omonia H5 November
  5. MD5Rennes H26 November
  6. MD6Ararat-Armenia A10 December
  7. MD7Benfica H21 January
  8. MD8Celje A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Dinamo Zagreb vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?

The model gives GNK Dinamo a 46% chance of winning and N.E.C. Nijmegen 28%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Dinamo Zagreb vs N.E.C. Nijmegen?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.5 for GNK Dinamo and 1.1 for N.E.C. Nijmegen, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for GNK Dinamo?

GNK Dinamo's qualification chance is 76% right now. A win would make it 91%, a draw 72% and a defeat 56%.

What does this match mean for N.E.C. Nijmegen?

N.E.C. Nijmegen's qualification chance is 53% right now. A win would make it 77%, a draw 53% and a defeat 39%.

When is GNK Dinamo vs N.E.C. Nijmegen played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →