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Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

Lech Poznań36th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Sunderland9th, 6 pts
29%Lech Poznań win
26%Draw
45%Sunderland win

The model gives Lech Poznań a 29% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sunderland 45%. Lech Poznań's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 38%, a defeat to 9%. Sunderland's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 97%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLech Poznań: top 8Lech Poznań: throughSunderland: top 8Sunderland: through
Now<1%19%55%99%
Lech Poznań win1%38%34%97%
Draw<1%16%48%99%
Sunderland win<1%9%72%>99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.5Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
23%Lech Poznań clean sheet
32%Sunderland clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lech Poznań

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -8

  1. MD1LCrystal Palace A0–4
  2. MD2LLeverkusen H0–4
  3. MD3Sunderland H this match22 October
  4. MD4Benfica A5 November
  5. MD5Union SG A26 November
  6. MD6Ferencváros H10 December
  7. MD7Torreense H21 January
  8. MD8OFI Crete A28 January

Sunderland

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +2

  1. MD1WAZ Alkmaar H1–0
  2. MD2WTorreense A2–1
  3. MD3Lech Poznań A this match22 October
  4. MD4GNK Dinamo H5 November
  5. MD5Jagiellonia H26 November
  6. MD6Milan A10 December
  7. MD7Anderlecht A21 January
  8. MD8Levski Sofia H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?

The model gives Lech Poznań a 29% chance of winning and Sunderland 45%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Lech Poznań vs Sunderland?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Lech Poznań and 1.5 for Sunderland, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lech Poznań?

Lech Poznań's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 38%, a draw 16% and a defeat 9%.

What does this match mean for Sunderland?

Sunderland's qualification chance is 99% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 99% and a defeat 97%.

When is Lech Poznań vs Sunderland played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →