Lech Poznań vs Sunderland: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45
Lech Poznań35th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Sunderland16th, 3 pts
33%Lech Poznań win
26%Draw
41%Sunderland win
The model gives Lech Poznań a 33% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Sunderland 41%. Lech Poznań's chance of going through is 33% now: a win would take it to 53%, a defeat to 19%. Sunderland's chance of going through is 93% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 87%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Lech Poznań: top 8 | Lech Poznań: through | Sunderland: top 8 | Sunderland: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 2% | 33% | 42% | 93% |
| Lech Poznań win | 4% | 53% | 24% | 87% |
| Draw | 1% | 29% | 36% | 93% |
| Sunderland win | <1% | 19% | 60% | 98% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar
- Ferencváros – Torreense
- GNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Juventus – Rennes
- OFI Crete – Leverkusen
- Union SG – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Sturm Graz – Marseille
- Bournemouth – Milan
- Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace
- Celtic – Celta
- Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia
- Jagiellonia – Anderlecht
- Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad
- Celje – Salzburg
- Olympiacos – Sparta Praha
- Omonia – Benfica
- Hoffenheim – Lyon