Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45
Ararat-Armenia33rd, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
AZ Alkmaar25th, 0 pts
17%Ararat-Armenia win
22%Draw
61%AZ Alkmaar win
The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 17% chance of winning, a draw 22% and AZ Alkmaar 61%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 10% now: a win would take it to 27%, a defeat to 6%. AZ Alkmaar's chance of going through is 75% now: a win would take it to 84%, a defeat to 54%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Ararat-Armenia: top 8 | Ararat-Armenia: through | AZ Alkmaar: top 8 | AZ Alkmaar: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | <1% | 10% | 14% | 75% |
| Ararat-Armenia win | 1% | 27% | 4% | 54% |
| Draw | <1% | 11% | 7% | 66% |
| AZ Alkmaar win | <1% | 6% | 20% | 84% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
0–112%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
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