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Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

Ararat-Armenia34th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
AZ Alkmaar20th, 3 pts
16%Ararat-Armenia win
21%Draw
63%AZ Alkmaar win

The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 16% chance of winning, a draw 21% and AZ Alkmaar 63%. Ararat-Armenia's chance of going through is 6% now: a win would take it to 19%, a defeat to 3%. AZ Alkmaar's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 93%, a defeat to 65%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeArarat-Armenia: top 8Ararat-Armenia: throughAZ Alkmaar: top 8AZ Alkmaar: through
Now<1%6%13%86%
Ararat-Armenia win<1%19%2%65%
Draw<1%6%6%78%
AZ Alkmaar win0%3%18%93%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.9 – 1.9Expected goals
49%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
14%Ararat-Armenia clean sheet
42%AZ Alkmaar clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Ararat-Armenia

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LSparta Praha H1–4
  2. MD2LJagiellonia A1–3
  3. MD3AZ Alkmaar H this match22 October
  4. MD4Torreense A5 November
  5. MD5Salzburg A26 November
  6. MD6N.E.C. Nijmegen H10 December
  7. MD7Celje H21 January
  8. MD8Milan A28 January

AZ Alkmaar

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1LSunderland A0–1
  2. MD2WHapoel Beer-Sheva H2–1
  3. MD3Ararat-Armenia A this match22 October
  4. MD4Juventus H5 November
  5. MD5Sparta Praha A26 November
  6. MD6Sturm Graz H10 December
  7. MD7GNK Dinamo H21 January
  8. MD8Benfica A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?

The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 16% chance of winning and AZ Alkmaar 63%, with a draw at 21%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (11%).

Will both teams score in Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ararat-Armenia and 1.9 for AZ Alkmaar, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Ararat-Armenia?

Ararat-Armenia's qualification chance is 6% right now. A win would make it 19%, a draw 6% and a defeat 3%.

What does this match mean for AZ Alkmaar?

AZ Alkmaar's qualification chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 93%, a draw 78% and a defeat 65%.

When is Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →