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Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Viktoria Plzeň31st, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Levski Sofia25th, 1 pt
55%Viktoria Plzeň win
24%Draw
22%Levski Sofia win

The model gives Viktoria Plzeň a 55% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Levski Sofia 22%. Viktoria Plzeň's chance of going through is 33% now: a win would take it to 46%, a defeat to 13%. Levski Sofia's chance of going through is 24% now: a win would take it to 50%, a defeat to 14%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeViktoria Plzeň: top 8Viktoria Plzeň: throughLevski Sofia: top 8Levski Sofia: through
Now<1%33%<1%24%
Viktoria Plzeň win1%46%<1%14%
Draw<1%22%<1%25%
Levski Sofia win<1%13%1%50%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.7 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
38%Viktoria Plzeň clean sheet
18%Levski Sofia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Viktoria Plzeň

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -4

  1. MD1LUnion SG H0–3
  2. MD2LFerencváros A1–2
  3. MD3Levski Sofia H this match22 October
  4. MD4Lillestrøm A5 November
  5. MD5Benfica H26 November
  6. MD6Bournemouth A10 December
  7. MD7Real Sociedad A21 January
  8. MD8Jagiellonia H28 January

Levski Sofia

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LSalzburg H0–1
  2. MD2DN.E.C. Nijmegen A1–1
  3. MD3Viktoria Plzeň A this match22 October
  4. MD4Jagiellonia H5 November
  5. MD5Marseille A26 November
  6. MD6Lillestrøm H10 December
  7. MD7Milan H21 January
  8. MD8Sunderland A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia?

The model gives Viktoria Plzeň a 55% chance of winning and Levski Sofia 22%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.7 for Viktoria Plzeň and 1.0 for Levski Sofia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Viktoria Plzeň?

Viktoria Plzeň's qualification chance is 33% right now. A win would make it 46%, a draw 22% and a defeat 13%.

What does this match mean for Levski Sofia?

Levski Sofia's qualification chance is 24% right now. A win would make it 50%, a draw 25% and a defeat 14%.

When is Viktoria Plzeň vs Levski Sofia played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →