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OFI Crete vs Leverkusen: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

OFI Crete18th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Leverkusen2nd, 6 pts
13%OFI Crete win
19%Draw
67%Leverkusen win

The model gives OFI Crete a 13% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Leverkusen 67%. OFI Crete's chance of going through is 52% now: a win would take it to 82%, a defeat to 44%. Leverkusen's top-8 chance is 83% now: a win would take it to 90%, a defeat to 61%. The most likely score is 0–2 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeOFI Crete: top 8OFI Crete: throughLeverkusen: top 8Leverkusen: through
Now2%52%83%>99%
OFI Crete win7%82%61%99%
Draw2%58%74%>99%
Leverkusen win1%44%90%100%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

0.8 – 2.1Expected goals
48%Both teams score
55%3 or more goals
12%OFI Crete clean sheet
45%Leverkusen clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–19%
0–39%
1–37%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

OFI Crete

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WHoffenheim H2–0
  2. MD2LRennes A1–2
  3. MD3Leverkusen H this match22 October
  4. MD4Hapoel Beer-Sheva A5 November
  5. MD5Anderlecht H26 November
  6. MD6Benfica A10 December
  7. MD7Sturm Graz A21 January
  8. MD8Lech Poznań H28 January

Leverkusen

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +6

  1. MD1WCelje H2–0
  2. MD2WLech Poznań A4–0
  3. MD3OFI Crete A this match22 October
  4. MD4Marseille H5 November
  5. MD5GNK Dinamo A26 November
  6. MD6Beşiktaş H10 December
  7. MD7Salzburg H21 January
  8. MD8Lyon A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The model gives OFI Crete a 13% chance of winning and Leverkusen 67%, with a draw at 19%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–2 (12%), followed by 0–1 (12%).

Will both teams score in OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance. Expected goals are 0.8 for OFI Crete and 2.1 for Leverkusen, and the match has 3 or more goals in 55% of cases.

What does this match mean for OFI Crete?

OFI Crete's qualification chance is 52% right now. A win would make it 82%, a draw 58% and a defeat 44%.

What does this match mean for Leverkusen?

Leverkusen's top-8 chance is 83% right now. A win would make it 90%, a draw 74% and a defeat 61%.

When is OFI Crete vs Leverkusen played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →