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Ferencváros vs Torreense: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

Ferencváros7th, 6 pts
–Matchday 3
Torreense19th, 3 pts
61%Ferencváros win
22%Draw
17%Torreense win

The model gives Ferencváros a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Torreense 17%. Ferencváros's chance of going through is 97% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 89%. Torreense's chance of going through is 56% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 47%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeFerencváros: top 8Ferencváros: throughTorreense: top 8Torreense: through
Now34%97%3%56%
Ferencváros win45%>99%1%47%
Draw21%95%2%61%
Torreense win13%89%9%85%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.9 – 0.9Expected goals
50%Both teams score
52%3 or more goals
41%Ferencváros clean sheet
15%Torreense clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Ferencváros

6 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WCeltic A3–1
  2. MD2WViktoria Plzeň H2–1
  3. MD3Torreense H this match22 October
  4. MD4Milan A5 November
  5. MD5Celje H26 November
  6. MD6Lech Poznań A10 December
  7. MD7Juventus H21 January
  8. MD8Hoffenheim A28 January

Torreense

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference 0

  1. MD1WLillestrøm A2–1
  2. MD2LSunderland H1–2
  3. MD3Ferencváros A this match22 October
  4. MD4Ararat-Armenia H5 November
  5. MD5Celtic H26 November
  6. MD6Real Sociedad A10 December
  7. MD7Lech Poznań A21 January
  8. MD8Olympiacos H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Ferencváros vs Torreense?

The model gives Ferencváros a 61% chance of winning and Torreense 17%, with a draw at 22%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (11%).

Will both teams score in Ferencváros vs Torreense?

The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ferencváros and 0.9 for Torreense, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.

What does this match mean for Ferencváros?

Ferencváros's qualification chance is 97% right now. A win would make it >99%, a draw 95% and a defeat 89%.

What does this match mean for Torreense?

Torreense's qualification chance is 56% right now. A win would make it 85%, a draw 61% and a defeat 47%.

When is Ferencváros vs Torreense played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →