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Celje vs Salzburg: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Celje35th, 0 pts
–Matchday 3
Salzburg21st, 3 pts
27%Celje win
25%Draw
48%Salzburg win

The model gives Celje a 27% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Salzburg 48%. Celje's chance of going through is 19% now: a win would take it to 39%, a defeat to 10%. Salzburg's chance of going through is 84% now: a win would take it to 95%, a defeat to 68%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeCelje: top 8Celje: throughSalzburg: top 8Salzburg: through
Now<1%19%12%84%
Celje win1%39%3%68%
Draw<1%16%6%79%
Salzburg win<1%10%19%95%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.1 – 1.5Expected goals
52%Both teams score
49%3 or more goals
21%Celje clean sheet
34%Salzburg clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Celje

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -5

  1. MD1LLeverkusen A0–2
  2. MD2LOmonia H0–3
  3. MD3Salzburg H this match22 October
  4. MD4Sturm Graz A5 November
  5. MD5Ferencváros A26 November
  6. MD6Olympiacos H10 December
  7. MD7Ararat-Armenia A21 January
  8. MD8N.E.C. Nijmegen H28 January

Salzburg

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference -3

  1. MD1WLevski Sofia A1–0
  2. MD2LMilan H0–4
  3. MD3Celje A this match22 October
  4. MD4Anderlecht A5 November
  5. MD5Ararat-Armenia H26 November
  6. MD6Sparta Praha H10 December
  7. MD7Leverkusen A21 January
  8. MD8Crystal Palace H28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Celje vs RB Salzburg?

The model gives Celje a 27% chance of winning and Salzburg 48%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Celje vs RB Salzburg?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.1 for Celje and 1.5 for Salzburg, and the match has 3 or more goals in 49% of cases.

What does this match mean for Celje?

Celje's qualification chance is 19% right now. A win would make it 39%, a draw 16% and a defeat 10%.

What does this match mean for Salzburg?

Salzburg's qualification chance is 84% right now. A win would make it 95%, a draw 79% and a defeat 68%.

When is Celje vs Salzburg played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →