Union SG vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45
Union SG5th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Hapoel Beer-Sheva18th, 1 pts
61%Union SG win
22%Draw
17%Hapoel Beer-Sheva win
The model gives Union SG a 61% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Hapoel Beer-Sheva 17%. Union SG's chance of going through is 92% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 80%. Hapoel Beer-Sheva's chance of going through is 27% now: a win would take it to 55%, a defeat to 19%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Union SG: top 8 | Union SG: through | Hapoel Beer-Sheva: top 8 | Hapoel Beer-Sheva: through | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 40% | 92% | 1% | 27% |
| Union SG win | 51% | 97% | <1% | 19% |
| Draw | 28% | 88% | 1% | 29% |
| Hapoel Beer-Sheva win | 18% | 80% | 5% | 55% |
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar
- Ferencváros – Torreense
- GNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Juventus – Rennes
- Lech Poznań – Sunderland
- OFI Crete – Leverkusen
- Sturm Graz – Marseille
- Bournemouth – Milan
- Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace
- Celtic – Celta
- Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia
- Jagiellonia – Anderlecht
- Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad
- Celje – Salzburg
- Olympiacos – Sparta Praha
- Omonia – Benfica
- Hoffenheim – Lyon