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Union SG vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

Union SG12th, 4 pts
–Matchday 3
Hapoel Beer-Sheva24th, 1 pt
64%Union SG win
21%Draw
15%Hapoel Beer-Sheva win

The model gives Union SG a 64% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Hapoel Beer-Sheva 15%. Union SG's chance of going through is 96% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 86%. Hapoel Beer-Sheva's chance of going through is 20% now: a win would take it to 48%, a defeat to 13%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeUnion SG: top 8Union SG: throughHapoel Beer-Sheva: top 8Hapoel Beer-Sheva: through
Now33%96%<1%20%
Union SG win41%99%<1%13%
Draw20%93%<1%22%
Hapoel Beer-Sheva win12%86%1%48%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.0 – 0.8Expected goals
49%Both teams score
54%3 or more goals
43%Union SG clean sheet
14%Hapoel Beer-Sheva clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Union SG

4 points from 2 matches, goal difference +3

  1. MD1WViktoria Plzeň A3–0
  2. MD2DReal Sociedad H1–1
  3. MD3Hapoel Beer-Sheva H this match22 October
  4. MD4Celta A5 November
  5. MD5Lech Poznań H26 November
  6. MD6Lyon A10 December
  7. MD7Beşiktaş A21 January
  8. MD8Celtic H28 January

Hapoel Beer-Sheva

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1DGNK Dinamo H0–0
  2. MD2LAZ Alkmaar A1–2
  3. MD3Union SG A this match22 October
  4. MD4OFI Crete H5 November
  5. MD5Beşiktaş A26 November
  6. MD6Juventus H10 December
  7. MD7Celta H21 January
  8. MD8Bournemouth A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

The model gives Union SG a 64% chance of winning and Hapoel Beer-Sheva 15%, with a draw at 21%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 2.0 for Union SG and 0.8 for Hapoel Beer-Sheva, and the match has 3 or more goals in 54% of cases.

What does this match mean for Union SG?

Union SG's qualification chance is 96% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 93% and a defeat 86%.

What does this match mean for Hapoel Beer-Sheva?

Hapoel Beer-Sheva's qualification chance is 20% right now. A win would make it 48%, a draw 22% and a defeat 13%.

When is Union SG vs Hapoel Beer-Sheva played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →