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Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Jagiellonia17th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Anderlecht28th, 0 pts
38%Jagiellonia win
26%Draw
35%Anderlecht win

The model gives Jagiellonia a 38% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Anderlecht 35%. Jagiellonia's chance of going through is 59% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 40%. Anderlecht's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 58%, a defeat to 22%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeJagiellonia: top 8Jagiellonia: throughAnderlecht: top 8Anderlecht: through
Now4%59%1%38%
Jagiellonia win7%80%<1%22%
Draw2%55%<1%34%
Anderlecht win1%40%2%58%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
28%Jagiellonia clean sheet
27%Anderlecht clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Jagiellonia

3 points from 2 matches, goal difference +1

  1. MD1LOlympiacos A1–2
  2. MD2WArarat-Armenia H3–1
  3. MD3Anderlecht H this match22 October
  4. MD4Levski Sofia A5 November
  5. MD5Sunderland A26 November
  6. MD6Crystal Palace H10 December
  7. MD7Lyon H21 January
  8. MD8Viktoria Plzeň A28 January

Anderlecht

0 points from 2 matches, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LLyon H1–2
  2. MD2LGNK Dinamo A0–1
  3. MD3Jagiellonia A this match22 October
  4. MD4Salzburg H5 November
  5. MD5OFI Crete A26 November
  6. MD6Hoffenheim H10 December
  7. MD7Sunderland H21 January
  8. MD8Marseille A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht?

The model gives Jagiellonia a 38% chance of winning and Anderlecht 35%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 1–0 (10%).

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Jagiellonia and 1.3 for Anderlecht, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Jagiellonia?

Jagiellonia's qualification chance is 59% right now. A win would make it 80%, a draw 55% and a defeat 40%.

What does this match mean for Anderlecht?

Anderlecht's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 58%, a draw 34% and a defeat 22%.

When is Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →