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Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Lillestrøm23rd, 1 pt
–Matchday 3
Real Sociedad22nd, 1 pt
21%Lillestrøm win
24%Draw
55%Real Sociedad win

The model gives Lillestrøm a 21% chance of winning, a draw 24% and Real Sociedad 55%. Lillestrøm's chance of going through is 18% now: a win would take it to 40%, a defeat to 9%. Real Sociedad's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 85%, a defeat to 48%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeLillestrøm: top 8Lillestrøm: throughReal Sociedad: top 8Real Sociedad: through
Now<1%18%5%72%
Lillestrøm win1%40%1%48%
Draw<1%17%2%63%
Real Sociedad win<1%9%8%85%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.0 – 1.7Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
18%Lillestrøm clean sheet
38%Real Sociedad clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Lillestrøm

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LTorreense H1–2
  2. MD2DSparta Praha A1–1
  3. MD3Real Sociedad H this match22 October
  4. MD4Viktoria Plzeň H5 November
  5. MD5Lyon A26 November
  6. MD6Levski Sofia A10 December
  7. MD7Bournemouth H21 January
  8. MD8Celta A28 January

Real Sociedad

1 point from 2 matches, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LBournemouth H1–2
  2. MD2DUnion SG A1–1
  3. MD3Lillestrøm A this match22 October
  4. MD4Lyon H5 November
  5. MD5Crystal Palace A26 November
  6. MD6Torreense H10 December
  7. MD7Viktoria Plzeň H21 January
  8. MD8Juventus A28 January

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?

The model gives Lillestrøm a 21% chance of winning and Real Sociedad 55%, with a draw at 24%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lillestrøm and 1.7 for Real Sociedad, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Lillestrøm?

Lillestrøm's qualification chance is 18% right now. A win would make it 40%, a draw 17% and a defeat 9%.

What does this match mean for Real Sociedad?

Real Sociedad's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 85%, a draw 63% and a defeat 48%.

When is Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 3).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 3 fixtures

Full matchday 3: what every team needs →