Omonia vs Benfica: what's at stake in the Europa League?
← Europa League: full table and chances
Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00
The model gives Omonia a 17% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Benfica 61%. Omonia's chance of going through is 82% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 75%. Benfica's top-8 chance is 91% now: a win would take it to 96%, a defeat to 78%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).
What each result means
Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.
| Outcome | Omonia: top 8 | Omonia: through | Benfica: top 8 | Benfica: through |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 9% | 82% | 91% | 100% |
| Omonia win | 25% | 98% | 78% | >99% |
| Draw | 8% | 86% | 86% | 100% |
| Benfica win | 4% | 75% | 96% | 100% |
Goals
From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.
Most likely scores
The most likely exact scores according to the model.
Form and fixtures
Both teams' Europa League matches: results so far and what is still to come.
Benfica
- MD1WMilan A2–0
- MD2WCeltic H4–1
- MD3Omonia A this match22 October
- MD4Lech Poznań H5 November
- MD5Viktoria Plzeň A26 November
- MD6OFI Crete H10 December
- MD7N.E.C. Nijmegen A21 January
- MD8AZ Alkmaar H28 January
Frequently asked questions
Who is favourite in Omonia vs Benfica?
The model gives Omonia a 17% chance of winning and Benfica 61%, with a draw at 22%.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely exact score is 0–1 (12%), followed by 0–2 (11%).
Will both teams score in Omonia vs Benfica?
The model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. Expected goals are 0.9 for Omonia and 1.9 for Benfica, and the match has 3 or more goals in 52% of cases.
What does this match mean for Omonia?
Omonia's qualification chance is 82% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 86% and a defeat 75%.
What does this match mean for Benfica?
Benfica's top-8 chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 96%, a draw 86% and a defeat 78%.
When is Omonia vs Benfica played?
Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Europa League, matchday 3).
Big matches coming up
For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.
Other matchday 3 fixtures
- Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar
- Ferencváros – Torreense
- GNK Dinamo – N.E.C. Nijmegen
- Juventus – Rennes
- Lech Poznań – Sunderland
- OFI Crete – Leverkusen
- Union SG – Hapoel Beer-Sheva
- Sturm Graz – Marseille
- Bournemouth – Milan
- Beşiktaş – Crystal Palace
- Celtic – Celta
- Viktoria Plzeň – Levski Sofia
- Jagiellonia – Anderlecht
- Lillestrøm – Real Sociedad
- Celje – Salzburg
- Olympiacos – Sparta Praha
- Hoffenheim – Lyon