Knockout Math
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Omonia vs Benfica: what's at stake in the Europa League?

← Europa League: full table and chances

Matchday 3 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Omonia15th, 3 pts
–Matchday 3
Benfica7th, 3 pts
16%Omonia win
22%Draw
62%Benfica win

The model gives Omonia a 16% chance of winning, a draw 22% and Benfica 62%. Omonia's chance of going through is 46% now: a win would take it to 74%, a defeat to 37%. Benfica's chance of going through is 99% now: a win would take it to >99%, a defeat to 98%. The most likely score is 0–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

Omonia: top 8Omonia: throughBenfica: top 8Benfica: through
Now4%46%82%99%
Omonia win11%74%62%98%
Draw3%50%74%99%
Benfica win2%37%90%>99%

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

0–112%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%

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