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Aarhus vs Egnatia: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Aarhus30th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Egnatia22nd, 1 pt
63%Aarhus win
21%Draw
16%Egnatia win

The model gives Aarhus a 63% chance of winning, a draw 21% and Egnatia 16%. Aarhus's chance of going through is 72% now: a win would take it to 83%, a defeat to 43%. Egnatia's chance of going through is 46% now: a win would take it to 80%, a defeat to 36%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeAarhus: top 8Aarhus: throughEgnatia: top 8Egnatia: through
Now12%72%3%46%
Aarhus win17%83%1%36%
Draw4%58%3%51%
Egnatia win2%43%11%80%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

2.0 – 0.9Expected goals
49%Both teams score
53%3 or more goals
43%Aarhus clean sheet
14%Egnatia clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Aarhus

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LGent A0–1
  2. MD2Egnatia H this match22 October
  3. MD3Braga H5 November
  4. MD4Brann A26 November
  5. MD5Twente H10 December
  6. MD6Inter Escaldes A17 December

Egnatia

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DMidtjylland H1–1
  2. MD2Aarhus A this match22 October
  3. MD3Universitatea Craiova A5 November
  4. MD4Lincoln Red Imps H26 November
  5. MD5Kauno Žalgiris H10 December
  6. MD6Braga A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Aarhus vs Egnatia?

The model gives Aarhus a 63% chance of winning and Egnatia 16%, with a draw at 21%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 2–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Aarhus vs Egnatia?

The model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance. Expected goals are 2.0 for Aarhus and 0.9 for Egnatia, and the match has 3 or more goals in 53% of cases.

What does this match mean for Aarhus?

Aarhus's qualification chance is 72% right now. A win would make it 83%, a draw 58% and a defeat 43%.

What does this match mean for Egnatia?

Egnatia's qualification chance is 46% right now. A win would make it 80%, a draw 51% and a defeat 36%.

When is Aarhus vs Egnatia played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →