Conference League matchday 5: what every team needs
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Updated 28 September 2026, 2026/27 league phase
Conference League matchday 5 is played on 10 December across 18 fixtures. The most is at stake for Egnatia: a win would lift their chances of going through to 63%, a defeat would drop them to 21%.
Matchday 5 fixtures
Model probabilities for each fixture: home win, draw, away win.
- Thu 10 Dec, 16:30 Kairat Almaty – Universitatea Craiova 38% · 26% · 35%
- Thu 10 Dec, 18:45 Brann – Braga 31% · 26% · 43%
- Thu 10 Dec, 18:45 Copenhagen – Lugano 55% · 24% · 21%
- Thu 10 Dec, 18:45 Freiburg – Panathinaikos 61% · 22% · 17%
- Thu 10 Dec, 18:45 Getafe – Inter Escaldes 81% · 13% · 6%
- Thu 10 Dec, 18:45 Iberia Tbilisi – Crvena Zvezda 21% · 24% · 55%
- Thu 10 Dec, 18:45 KuPS Kuopio – CSKA Sofia 40% · 26% · 34%
- Thu 10 Dec, 18:45 Lincoln Red Imps – Midtjylland 12% · 19% · 69%
- Thu 10 Dec, 18:45 Riga FC – Atalanta 11% · 18% · 71%
- Thu 10 Dec, 18:45 Trabzonspor – Jablonec 57% · 23% · 20%
- Thu 10 Dec, 21:00 Aarhus – Twente 38% · 26% · 35%
- Thu 10 Dec, 21:00 Brighton – Monaco 47% · 26% · 28%
- Thu 10 Dec, 21:00 Egnatia – Kauno Žalgiris 38% · 26% · 35%
- Thu 10 Dec, 21:00 Hajduk Split – Nordsjælland 41% · 26% · 33%
- Thu 10 Dec, 21:00 Hearts – Borac 58% · 23% · 19%
- Thu 10 Dec, 21:00 Mjällby – Pafos 43% · 26% · 31%
- Thu 10 Dec, 21:00 Sint-Truidense – Ajax 28% · 26% · 46%
- Thu 10 Dec, 21:00 Thun – Gent 31% · 26% · 43%
Who has the most at stake
The teams whose chances of going through move most with this matchday's result.
| Team | Fixture | Now | If they win | If they lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egnatia | Egnatia – Kauno Žalgiris | 40% | 63% | 21% |
| Pafos | Mjällby – Pafos | 55% | 79% | 38% |
| Kauno Žalgiris | Egnatia – Kauno Žalgiris | 40% | 63% | 22% |
| Borac | Hearts – Borac | 35% | 65% | 24% |
| Kairat Almaty | Kairat Almaty – Universitatea Craiova | 43% | 64% | 24% |
Frequently asked questions
When is Conference League matchday 5 played?
On 10 December, across 18 fixtures.
Which team has the most at stake on matchday 5?
Egnatia. A win lifts their chances of going through to 63%, a defeat drops them to 21% — a swing of about 42 percentage points.
How many points are needed to qualify?
In the simulations 12 points usually secure the top 8, and 7 points are usually enough for 24th place or better.