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Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 16:30

Kairat Almaty15th, 1 pt
–Matchday 2
Panathinaikos10th, 3 pts
30%Kairat Almaty win
26%Draw
44%Panathinaikos win

The model gives Kairat Almaty a 30% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Panathinaikos 44%. Kairat Almaty's chance of going through is 41% now: a win would take it to 70%, a defeat to 23%. Panathinaikos's chance of going through is 85% now: a win would take it to 97%, a defeat to 69%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeKairat Almaty: top 8Kairat Almaty: throughPanathinaikos: top 8Panathinaikos: through
Now2%41%23%85%
Kairat Almaty win6%70%8%69%
Draw1%37%14%83%
Panathinaikos win<1%23%38%97%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.2 – 1.4Expected goals
52%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
23%Kairat Almaty clean sheet
32%Panathinaikos clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Kairat Almaty

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DRiga FC A1–1
  2. MD2Panathinaikos H this match22 October
  3. MD3Atalanta A5 November
  4. MD4Mjällby H26 November
  5. MD5Universitatea Craiova H10 December
  6. MD6Twente A17 December

Panathinaikos

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WBorac H2–1
  2. MD2Kairat Almaty A this match22 October
  3. MD3CSKA Sofia H5 November
  4. MD4Nordsjælland A26 November
  5. MD5Freiburg A10 December
  6. MD6Brighton H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos?

The model gives Kairat Almaty a 30% chance of winning and Panathinaikos 44%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 0–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos?

The model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kairat Almaty and 1.4 for Panathinaikos, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Kairat Almaty?

Kairat Almaty's qualification chance is 41% right now. A win would make it 70%, a draw 37% and a defeat 23%.

What does this match mean for Panathinaikos?

Panathinaikos's qualification chance is 85% right now. A win would make it 97%, a draw 83% and a defeat 69%.

When is Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos played?

Thursday 22 October, 16:30 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →