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Thun vs Hajduk Split: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 21:00

Thun29th, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Hajduk Split12th, 3 pts
36%Thun win
26%Draw
37%Hajduk Split win

The model gives Thun a 36% chance of winning, a draw 26% and Hajduk Split 37%. Thun's chance of going through is 38% now: a win would take it to 60%, a defeat to 20%. Hajduk Split's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 99%, a defeat to 82%. The most likely score is 1–1 (13%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeThun: top 8Thun: throughHajduk Split: top 8Hajduk Split: through
Now2%38%34%91%
Thun win6%60%17%82%
Draw1%32%27%92%
Hajduk Split win<1%20%56%99%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.3 – 1.3Expected goals
53%Both teams score
48%3 or more goals
27%Thun clean sheet
28%Hajduk Split clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Thun

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -1

  1. MD1LTwente A0–1
  2. MD2Hajduk Split H this match22 October
  3. MD3Hearts H5 November
  4. MD4Ajax A26 November
  5. MD5Gent H10 December
  6. MD6CSKA Sofia A17 December

Hajduk Split

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WAjax H2–1
  2. MD2Thun A this match22 October
  3. MD3Lincoln Red Imps A5 November
  4. MD4Sint-Truidense H26 November
  5. MD5Nordsjælland H10 December
  6. MD6Midtjylland A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Thun vs Hajduk Split?

The model gives Thun a 36% chance of winning and Hajduk Split 37%, with a draw at 26%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (13%), followed by 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Thun vs Hajduk Split?

The model gives both teams scoring a 53% chance. Expected goals are 1.3 for Thun and 1.3 for Hajduk Split, and the match has 3 or more goals in 48% of cases.

What does this match mean for Thun?

Thun's qualification chance is 38% right now. A win would make it 60%, a draw 32% and a defeat 20%.

What does this match mean for Hajduk Split?

Hajduk Split's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 99%, a draw 92% and a defeat 82%.

When is Thun vs Hajduk Split played?

Thursday 22 October, 21:00 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →