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Pafos vs Riga FC: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

Pafos32nd, 0 pts
–Matchday 2
Riga FC21st, 1 pt
52%Pafos win
25%Draw
23%Riga FC win

The model gives Pafos a 52% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Riga FC 23%. Pafos's chance of going through is 50% now: a win would take it to 66%, a defeat to 25%. Riga FC's chance of going through is 48% now: a win would take it to 77%, a defeat to 34%. The most likely score is 1–1 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomePafos: top 8Pafos: throughRiga FC: top 8Riga FC: through
Now5%50%3%48%
Pafos win8%66%1%34%
Draw2%40%3%50%
Riga FC win1%25%10%77%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.6 – 1.0Expected goals
51%Both teams score
50%3 or more goals
36%Pafos clean sheet
19%Riga FC clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–112%
1–012%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
0–07%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Pafos

0 points from 1 match, goal difference -2

  1. MD1LAtalanta A1–3
  2. MD2Riga FC H this match22 October
  3. MD3Twente A5 November
  4. MD4Midtjylland H26 November
  5. MD5Mjällby A10 December
  6. MD6Hearts H17 December

Riga FC

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DKairat Almaty H1–1
  2. MD2Pafos A this match22 October
  3. MD3Jablonec H5 November
  4. MD4Kauno Žalgiris A26 November
  5. MD5Atalanta H10 December
  6. MD6Borac A17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Pafos vs Riga FC?

The model gives Pafos a 52% chance of winning and Riga FC 23%, with a draw at 25%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–1 (12%), followed by 1–0 (12%).

Will both teams score in Pafos vs Riga FC?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.6 for Pafos and 1.0 for Riga FC, and the match has 3 or more goals in 50% of cases.

What does this match mean for Pafos?

Pafos's qualification chance is 50% right now. A win would make it 66%, a draw 40% and a defeat 25%.

What does this match mean for Riga FC?

Riga FC's qualification chance is 48% right now. A win would make it 77%, a draw 50% and a defeat 34%.

When is Pafos vs Riga FC played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →