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Getafe vs Lugano: what's at stake in the Conference League?

← Conference League: full table and chances

Matchday 2 · Thursday 22 October, 18:45

Getafe17th, 1 pt
–Matchday 2
Lugano8th, 3 pts
57%Getafe win
23%Draw
20%Lugano win

The model gives Getafe a 57% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Lugano 20%. Getafe's chance of going through is 91% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 77%. Lugano's chance of going through is 86% now: a win would take it to 98%, a defeat to 80%. The most likely score is 1–0 (12%).

What each result means

Both teams' chances of finishing in the top 8 and going through (top 24) depending on this result, from the simulations.

OutcomeGetafe: top 8Getafe: throughLugano: top 8Lugano: through
Now31%91%23%86%
Getafe win44%98%14%80%
Draw19%87%24%91%
Lugano win8%77%50%98%

Goals

From the model's expected goals for each side. Scores are drawn from a Poisson distribution, the standard model for football scores.

1.8 – 0.9Expected goals
51%Both teams score
51%3 or more goals
39%Getafe clean sheet
17%Lugano clean sheet

Most likely scores

The most likely exact scores according to the model.

1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%

Form and fixtures

Both teams' Conference League matches: results so far and what is still to come.

Getafe

1 point from 1 match, goal difference 0

  1. MD1DUniversitatea Craiova A1–1
  2. MD2Lugano H this match22 October
  3. MD3Brighton H5 November
  4. MD4Iberia Tbilisi A26 November
  5. MD5Inter Escaldes H10 December
  6. MD6Ajax A17 December

Lugano

3 points from 1 match, goal difference +1

  1. MD1WCrvena Zvezda H3–2
  2. MD2Getafe A this match22 October
  3. MD3Kauno Žalgiris H5 November
  4. MD4Jablonec A26 November
  5. MD5Copenhagen A10 December
  6. MD6Sint-Truidense H17 December

Frequently asked questions

Who is favourite in Getafe vs Lugano?

The model gives Getafe a 57% chance of winning and Lugano 20%, with a draw at 23%.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely exact score is 1–0 (12%), followed by 1–1 (11%).

Will both teams score in Getafe vs Lugano?

The model gives both teams scoring a 51% chance. Expected goals are 1.8 for Getafe and 0.9 for Lugano, and the match has 3 or more goals in 51% of cases.

What does this match mean for Getafe?

Getafe's qualification chance is 91% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 87% and a defeat 77%.

What does this match mean for Lugano?

Lugano's qualification chance is 86% right now. A win would make it 98%, a draw 91% and a defeat 80%.

When is Getafe vs Lugano played?

Thursday 22 October, 18:45 (Conference League, matchday 2).

Big matches coming up

For each match: win probabilities and what every result means for both teams' chances of going through.

Other matchday 2 fixtures

Full matchday 2: what every team needs →